Phillies: 2022’s Plan A

By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor

Considering that money will play the main role in the Philadelphia Phillies offseason, Dave Dombrowski, POB (president of baseball operations), will have every dollar available for priorities first. Ergo, four free agents are in his immediate sights, while inexpensive players will fill out the remaining spots later.   

Maximizing the Dollars:

For the Phillies faithful bracing for winter, the hot stove league is lukewarm. But the execs are playing their seventh game of the World Series when they’re competing for the difference-making stars of limited supply aside from shortstops. But forget overpaying!

IN OTHER WORDS:

“Planning is bringing the future into the present so that you can do something about it now.” – Alan Lakein

Addressing each shortcoming individually, the Fightins can acquire a closer, a setup man, a center fielder, a leadoff hitter, a shortstop and a third baseman. Realistically, though, paying top dollar for the best available star to plug every weakness isn’t going to happen because of the prohibitive cost.

Even if the Phils plugged every hole but one, many locals would harp on it relentlessly during rough patches. However, boobirds will have Opening Day to be unhappy and May to give up on players having a slow start. But overall filling two major spots will produce victories.              

In early November, Didi Gregorius had minor surgery to remove right elbow inflammation; and, yes, it had affected his glove and bat. But releasing him isn’t the option some may believe because another franchise will take a flyer on him for only the MLB minimum. Ergo, don’t expect the red pinstripes to eat the other $13.9 million. 

While Gregorius must earn the regular job, POB Dombrowski also informed rookie Bryson Stott to prepare for an everyday role. To date, Stott has been a .300 hitter at Double-A, Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League. So, this will be a spring-training storyline from day one.         

Alec Bohm is in Clearwater working with new hitting coach Kevin Long to reverse the bad habits leading to a cratered batting average and a 60 percent increase in errors. Yes, some have soured on him, but management feels his hitting struggles led to his defensive woes. But keep in mind, this isn’t a rare major league occurrence.      

With the new CBA (collective bargaining agreement), the owners insist on parity, while the MLBPA (players association) wants higher wages. The MLB, though, prefers two CBTs (competitive-balance thresholds): a $180 million AAV (average annual value) ceiling and a $100 million AAV floor.            

In 2021, 28 organizations lost money due to first-half attendance revenues, so small-market clubs could have reduced spending. Not the Phillies though. Unfortunately, the front office will face financial limits of $5 million over a CBT of $212 million and another $15 million overage at the trading deadline.      

Based on recent statements, Dombrowski has a budget but the uncertain CBA has many tentacles. Translation: the owners could lock out the players and institute a transactions’ freeze. Though, major leaguers receive their income during the season.                  

Phillies Minimum AAV Payroll:

* Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, JT Realmuto, Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius (total also includes Scott Kingery).

** Zach Eflin, Rhys Hoskins, Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez.

*** Ranger Suarez, Alec Bohm, Connor Brogdon and Sam Coonrod.

With a $2 million AAV increase to a new CBT of $212 million AAV, the Fightins will have $38-43 million for 11 active roster slots. And the current trend of most big-market teams is to exceed only the first threshold by just under $20 million for no more than two consecutive 162s.           

Presently, Dombrowski’s approach could be setting up maximum dollars for two major signings totaling $30 million AAV and the re-upping of Hector Neris for $7.5 million AAV: a $37.5 million AAV tally. Bottom line: $4.8 million for eight youngsters to fill out the active 26 brings the total to $42.3 million AAV.            

MLB Minimum Salaries:

($4.8 million cost for 8 Phillies)

* LHP

Exceeding a $212 million CBT by $4.3 million AAV will allow the red pinstripes to add a closer and a leadoff-hitting center fielder plus a re-signed setup man. Unfortunately, doing so leaves eight roster slots open to green talent: on-the-job training. But one solution is adding years to contracts to lower their AAVs.            

To illustrate, Neris’ estimated pact is $15 million for two summers, but three campaigns at $19.5 million has a $6.5 million AAV: It lowers the AAV by $1 million. Moreover, southpaw Aaron Loup could be a backup plan at $5 million AAV if Neris is too pricey, or other spending limits the expenditure for a setup piece.                     

For Raisel Iglesias, the expected contract is $14 million for each of four seasons, but he would solve the problem of securing Phils’ triumphs. And he’s a top-five closer who won’t run an organization $17 million per 162. Alternative proposal: A $60 million deal for five years at $12 million AAV.           

Starling Marte can hit .300, steal 50 bags, launch 15 bombs, and defend center field. Like Iglesias, Marte has limited competition and plenty of suitors, and his projected cost is $20 million annually for four summers. Alternative spending: A $90 million offer for five campaigns at $18 million AAV. 

Phillies Alternative Spending (long shot):

• Iglesias: $12 million AAV ($60 million for 5 campaigns).
• National Estimate: $14 million annually for 4 summers at $56 million.
• Marte: $18 million AAV ($90 million for 5 seasons).
• National Estimate: $20 million annually for 4 years.
• Neris: $6.5 million AAV ($19.5 million for 3 campaigns).
• National Estimate: $15 million annually for 2 summers.
• Loup: $4 million AAV ($8 million for 2 seasons).
• National Estimate: $5 million for 1 year.
• Sub-total: $40.5 million AAV.
• Minus: $1.2 million AAV (Loup and Kingery on the roster frees up two $600 thousand slots). (Loup by signing and Kingery’s salary in the base total.)
• Total: $39.3 million AAV of $38-43 million AAV.
• Balance: $3.7 million AAV to commit before Opening Day.

The Chicago White Sox could buy out Craig Kimbrel for $1 million after moving two top youngsters to their crosstown rival or exercise his $16 million club option to deal him. However, they would only get back $5-7 million and marginal MiLB talent: He could be a free agent for ‘22 for $5 million: a big if.    

When it comes to top free agents, Dombrowski will need every bit of creativity to pick up a closer, a setup man and a center fielder who can leadoff. So, if you’re envisioning a $20-25 million AAV third sacker or shortstop, what are you doing? Window shopping! 

NEXT:

2022’s Pitching Answers