With the plethora of changes that has occurred inside the Phillies organization one opinion remains the same within baseball pundits.
The 2016 Philadelphia Phillies will most likely be a last place team.
I disagree.
The Phillies have such low expectations heading into the 2016 season that the plethora of youth on this roster should be salivating at the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong.
Actually, I think the Pete Mackanin led baseball club can win 80 games and finish third place in the NL East this year. Now, when I say third place, that's a giant leap for a club who's been in the basement the last three seasons. Since 2012, the Phils have compiled an ugly 290-358 record, with last years 99 losses being the climax of atrocious.
However, since the arrival of GM Matt Klentak and combining him the prospects Ruben Amaro Jr. acquired over the last two years, the Phillies are surprisingly a team who are closer to competing again than most even wonder. The expectations for the Phillies in 2016 are bleak. The majority have them losing close to 95 games once again.
The plethora of changes that have occurred inside the organization is evidence of what the immediate future will look like. Out with the old, in the very young and new. Which is exactly what the fans want and the Phillies have needed for at least three years.
Mackanin has already come out swinging towards first baseman Ryan Howard in terms of his expectations for the former slugger. Basically, if Howard can't be a consistent hitter, against lefties, he won't play.
Sports Illustrated used an algorithm that suggested that the Phillies currently possess the leagues best minor league farm system. This is a complete overhaul of an opinion given that said praise hasn't been spoken of since maybe 2002. That's 14 years of minor league obscurity until now.
Klentak has turned the Phillies from a team where consensus pitted the club as a bottom feeder for the next five years to a team who could contend for a division title in under three. That should speak volumes as where this franchise has gone in such a short amount of time.
It truly bothers me when fans either on the street or in social media land dig into myself or others when being optimistic about the Phillies. Let me remind the pessimists that the last Philadelphia franchise who's done absolutely anything of significance in this town are the Phillies. They achieved the ultimate prize in 2008.
Should they have one at least another? Absolutely. But it didn't happen and we can't rewrite history. Nonetheless, the Philadelphia Eagles have nothing since 1960 (pre Super Bowl era), 76ers since 1983, and the Flyers in 1975. With that said, why is it so difficult to believe this team can't turn things around quicker than expected.
It starts with 2016.
Firstly, the NL East has all the makings to be one MLB's worst division outside of the New York Mets who should once again be a powerhouse in the National League. The Nationals are always in that 'implode' mode and are going to start the season with one legitimate pitcher in Max Scherzer, the Marlins will be the Marlins, and the Braves are expected to be one of the worst clubs in baseball.
That leads us to the Phillies.
I interviewed Kevin Cooney, Phillies beat writer for Calkins Media, on my 'High and Tight' podcast through Olio.fm in February and he told me 73 wins realm for this rebuilding baseball team. (Interview with Kevin Cooney of Calkins Media)
The Phillies are an exciting yet peculiar team to analyze. Surely, they're not a 65-win baseball team. It's hard to believe they're only a 70-win team. The Phillies have talented youth on their roster with solid veterans still around to guide. Once May and June come around fans will most likely see significant parts of the organizations future out on the diamond.
The dynamic between the youth and veterans on this roster will shine at points of a 162-game schedule. The duo of Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco will be a force, if healthy, throughout the entire season. Franco, 23, is the clubs best third baseman since the days of Scott Rolen back in the late 1990's. Franco has all the tools to arguably becoming one of the organizations top players in a long time.
Herrera will look to avoid a sophomore slump after having a tremendous rookie season in 2015 that gave us a slash line of .297/.344/.418 with an OPS of .762. Not bad for a 24-year old second baseman by trade, starting centerfielder today. The rest of the outfield is questionable, at best. Offseason free agent signing Peter Bourjos brings a good glove yet an inconsistent bat and Rule 5 pick Tyler Goeddel is an unknown at this juncture.
Outside of those two 'stars,' the Phillies will have to manage to score runs via small ball as their lineup doesn't necessarily garner power talk. Howard is way past his prime and it's unfair to ask for anything more than 20 homers and 60-75 RBIs at this point in his career. While Darin Ruf could give the Phillies lineup some much needed power against left-handed pitching.
With Aaron Altherr now out 4-6 months with tears in his left wrist, the Phillies now have a major void in their outfield. Nonetheless, the depth on the roster will aid Mackanin in finding a suitable replacement come opening day. Goeddel is expected to assume the opening day right field duties.
In the infield, Caesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis are what they are but can be quite valuable at plate as they've shown before. Both are above average fielders who showed camaraderie last season in the middle infield.
The biggest question mark heading into the 2016 season and beyond is the rotation. Led by Aaron Nola, the starting five pitchers leave a lot to be desired barring any unforeseen success. Jeremy Hellickson, Jerad Eickhoff, Adam Morgan, and Charlie Morton seem to have the remaining four spots locked up as April looms.
Offensively, the bats will need to be there often for the rotation and bullpen as the Phillies don't have much strength in arms. As time rolls on the arms could settle in but that's too difficult to predict, like everything else in baseball.
For the Phillies to win 80 games in 2016 they'll need to grab every ounce of consistency and luck out of their roster. This club cannot have long stretches of four to five game losing streaks. In the National League, the Phillies could quite easily shock a lot of people with a better record than expected. But the youth need to shine almost immediately, and I trust they can.
It's a great time to believe in revival for this baseball team. Led by a young vibrant GM in Klentak, the Phillies have a plan and that plan is in the shaping process heading into the 2016 campaign. Beyond that, it's acceptable to trust that the best is yet to come.
