Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee had a great first start…but now is experience "discomfort" and his future is in doubt. While we understand that Lee's injury has nothing to do with the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) that leads to the much-feared "Tommy John" surgery, the damage may be enough that with surgery, Lee's Phillies career could end. However, there is plenty of incentive for Lee to stick out 2015 until the end and worry about surgery later.
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. gave the grim news to Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News that if the team performs surgery, the diagnosis is a long recovery:
"A lot of it will depend on what (Dr. James) Andrews says, but everybody has kind of been on the same page with this, that if they do have to do a surgery and have to clean away some of the 'bad stuff' in there, it’s a real small area. If it ends up having to get repaired it’s 6-8 months. So I don’t know. I think ultimately it’ll be a decision for Cliff later on. But a lot of it will depend on how he’s feeling when he starts throwing again."
If the timetable is on the latter end of that – seven or eight months – Lee's 2016 option will not vest.
All Lee has to do to vest his 2016 contract option for $27.5 million is not be on the disabled list with an elbow or shoulder injury when the season ends. That means Lee could be on the disabled list for six months, pitch September, and be the Phillies highest-paid player next season. Or, Lee could avoid surgery, pitch poorly, and vest his contract for 2016…and next offseason get surgery.
Going into 2015, two potential outcomes would benefit the Phillies. For one, Lee pitches well, shows he is healthy, and the Phillies trade Lee's contract to a contender and receive compensation in return. In scenario two, Lee is injured for the duration of 2015. That benefits the Phillies because Lee's option would not vest and they would be free of further obligation. But while a healthy Lee benefits both the Phillies and Lee himself, option three is much more worrisome.
In option three, Lee fights through pain and pitches for the Phillies. But in that scenario Lee might not pitch well; no team would interested in Lee in trade, and Lee does not pitch well enough to demonstrate for other teams that health is not a concern. Once the season ends, Lee's massive contract for 2016 vests, and the Phillies are on the hook for a less-than-healthy Lee once again. This is the Phillies' biggest nightmare.
The Phillies probably could have traded Lee in 2013 had they been willing to fully rebuild. But of course, the team did not and will be forced to live with whatever the final outcome will be. Phillies fans were all ecstatic the night that the Phillies bit the bullet and signed Lee as a free agent. Then again, the Phillies could have signed Lee to an extension at $17 or $18 million a year in 2009.
Phillies fans saw Tyson Gillies come and go, Juan Carlos Ramirez come and go, and are watching Phillippe Aumont blow his last chance this spring. Cliff Lee succumbing to an injury would be the natural next step in a long history of mistakes for the Phillies and one of the most popular players ever to wear a Phillies uniform. What a shame.
