It is time once again for a Phillies 97.3 ESPN Monday Mailbag. We take your questions every Monday and then we talk about them during the Sports Bash with Mike Gill on Tuesday afternoons at 2:30 p.m. If you are not in South Jersey, you can listen online at 973espn.com.
How many home runs will Ryan Howard hit?
~@WiffleBall1
It was nice to see the warm reception that first baseman Ryan Howard received at the Phillies home opener on Monday. I think that Ryan Howard is going to surprise some people, if only for their low expectations. People get so focused on Ryan Howard's $25 million contract and base his value solely on how he is in relation to $25 million. I urge people to approach the situation this way: Howard's $25 million is spent and we should forget about his salary.
Howard is probably good for somewhere in the 25 range in terms of home runs hit. His average could be lower, particularly if he faces many left-handed hitters as Darin Ruf heads back to the outfield.
Who will be the first player brought up from AAA Lehigh Valley?
~Phoreverafan16
The Phillies bullpen seemed to prompt such a question. After struggling mightily their first few games, the bullpen seems to have quieted down some. But, there is room for improvement.
I would think that Andrew Bailey could be the first person summoned from AAA Lehigh Valley. With a May 1 opt-out date, the Phillies may decide to keep him under their control rather than simply let him walk. Bailey has pitched just one scoreless inning thus far – an unplayable field in Syracuse led to the IronPigs playing a double-header of seven inning games in Allentown instead of a four game series – but should see more work in coming days. If Bailey demonstrates that he has command on his pitches we could see him at Citizens Bank Park by May 1.
If Hector Neris struggles, the Phillies could grab Bailey or Luis Garcia. However, Neris has calmed down from his first appearance, where he allowed two inherited runners to score.
Who is a better team, the Phillies or the Braves?
~Mike
This question depends on whether you are asking who will play better in 2016 or whose rebuilding process is going better. Either question is somewhat of a toss up. Thanks to the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Braves have a couple of top prospects in their system, but they may have fewer pieces on their roster now.
The Braves essentially agreed to pay Bronson Arroyo's $10 million contact in exchange for taking back top prospect Touki Toussant. Arroyo was injured and did not play in 2015. Somehow the Braves managed to trade Arroyo's contract to the Dodgers later. We now know that the Diamondbacks were saving their pennies for Zach Greinke, but the move no doubt strengthened the Braves system. The further trade of Dansby Swanson and three others, including Ender Inciarte. Inciarte may be the one young talent on the Braves roster right now – and he's hurt.
This year's Braves team lacks the young talent that the Phillies have. While the Phillies have an Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, and Jerad Eickoff in their starting rotation, the Braves are going Bud Norris and Matt Wisler to slot behind their young ace, Julio Teheran. Out the door went shortstop Andrelton Simmons and in went Erick Aybar, a very nice player but lacking the impact of Simmons. The Phillies have Maikel Franco to watch now.
So, for now, I would say that the 2016 Phillies are "better" than the 2016 Braves. I believe that when the season is over either the Braves or the Cincinnati Reds will have the worst record in baseball. The Phillies should not be too far behind, but there is enough young talent already on the Phillies Major League roster that they should have the edge. Long-term, the Braves and Phillies could match up nicely should their prospects work out. But we can only speculate about them for either team until they are up and producing.
Can the Phillies outfield produce any offense?
~Ray
I think the Phillies biggest weakness offensively so far has been their outfield. Peter Bourjos is 4 for 21 – for a .190 average. Cedric Hunter has a home run, but is 2 for 21 – an .095 batting average. Tyler Goeddel so far looks overmatched, though that was to be expected. Goeddel is hitless in five at bats. After starting 1 for 11 in his first three games, Odubel Herrera has hit in each of his last four games and 5 for 15 in those last four games (.333).
The Phillies clearly miss Aaron Altherr this season, who was likely to be a steady hand in their outfield. Even Cody Asche would have contributed from the left side instead of Hunter. Asche is a career .245 hitter, but generally has been consistent about it. The plan appears (as I mentioned before) to give Darin Ruf some games in the outfield to get his bat into the lineup. It is not the ideal solution, but probably the Phillies' best move thus far.
I would wonder if the Phillies would consider bringing up J.P. Arencibia to play the right-hand part of the first base platoon with Howard at first base, freeing Ruf up for the outfield. The last three seasons Arencibia has batted better against left-handed pitchers, albeit a .221 average. He has 12 home runs in 231 at bats against lefties the last three years. The Phillies will have to get desperate to make a move like that.
For now, the Phillies will put at least two outfielders in the 7th and 8th spots in the batting order and hope that the rest takes care of the offense.
