By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor 
For the Philadelphia Phillies and two divisional foes, ‘21 is more about competing with crippled rosters through Oct. 3 than the talent on paper. All three organizations are battling with top stars out for the season, and fans can only imagine the difference a starter or a regular would make. Same boat, different crew!
Victory by Attrition:
While manager Joe Girardi must plug a rotation hole, the Phillies skipper must also meet the challenge of assembling a lineup to score enough to win more than those divisional rivals. Meanwhile, the natives are growing weary of the team’s chances despite their foes’ shortcomings due to out-for-the-year players.
IN OTHER WORDS:
“Success is just a war of attrition. Sure, there's an element of talent you should probably possess, but if you stick around long enough, eventually something is going to happen.” – Dax Shepard
Determining the outcome with less than 20 ballgames is more difficult in 2021 because it’s an injury-plagued 162, and COVID-19 protocols can remove any player for 10 days or more. This summer, the Fightins, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets and Washington Nationals have lost stars until 2022.
For the Phils, they have an open rotation slot because Zach Eflin had knee surgery, and every fifth day is a bullpen game. So far, they’ve produced one victory and one defeat. And Rhys Hoskins also had medical procedures. But while Hoskins played five August contests, Eflin had started just one game in the second half.
In April and May, Archie Bradley spent five weeks on the IL (injured list) and wasn’t effective in his appearances. Plus Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Didi Gregorius and Sam Coonrod missed time and/or played with minor injuries.
For the Nationals, Stephen Strasburg has worked only 21 ⅔ innings this season after only five frames in 2020. Yes, Washington is paying him $35 million per 162 through 2026, and not all hurlers return after surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Plus their run ended when Kyle Schwarber went on the IL after his homer barrage.
In Queens, the Metropolitans haven’t had one pitch from Jacob deGrom since July 7. Four months: Carlos Carrasco missed his first four, and Noah Syndergaard with June 1’s target date probably won’t return for meaningful innings. Plus David Peterson’s campaign ended on June 30.
Basically, JD Davis was out for 2.5 months, while their offense struggled. And though Dellin Betances missed the entire summer, others were also absent: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. Moreover, others had stints on the IL.
Ahead of the red pinstripes, the Braves are also without key stars. Pitching-wise, Atlanta had expected ace Mike Soroka to miss the first two months, but he had setbacks leading to another surgery. And Ian Anderson was on the IL for 1.5 months.
Presently, the Bravos have survived without Ronald Acuna Jr. from July 10, Marcell Ozuna since May 25 and Travis d’Arnaud for 3.5 months. But the front office replaced them with Joc Pederson, Jorge Solar and Adam Duvall, plus Austin Riley’s emergence has been the difference-maker.
Unusual Predictions:
By keeping Juan Soto, the Nats’ strategy could be unloading high-priced veterans and receiving the top organizational talent from clubs in the National League West and the American League East, who prefer winning the division over the wild card. And then Washington will reload their five-man staff, batting order and pen with free agents.
Realistically, the Mets’ approach will come down to money. Do they make a qualifying offer to Syndergaard (no ‘21 stats) or Michael Conforto having a down year? Do they re-sign Javier Baez and/or Marcus Stroman? Do they exceed the new, currently unknown CBT (competitive-balance threshold)? Is a major shake-up ahead?
In Atlanta, management will follow the same plan they do every season. They’ll make a quick strike in the offseason to shore up their rotation and the middle of their lineup including re-signing Freddie Freeman. Yes, they overpay to plug their holes, and it has fifty-fifty success. They avoid bidding wars.
While the Phillies rotation will be without Eflin until mid-March at the earliest, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson and Ranger Suarez will return. But Eflin might miss April if his rehab is eight months instead of six. So, Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations, will have a tough decision over the winter.
Dombrowski has already ruled out two released veterans, and Matt Moore isn’t opening bullpen games: He’s not a consideration. However, MiLB starter Adonis Medina can go five frames on Sept. 18 if the Phillies skip Johnny Wholestaff’s next turn due to Monday’s day off. And Medina can work long relief until he fills the slot.
In this elimination process, recent transactions reveal the Fightins’ strategy for 2021 and 2022. Can Medina be the temporary fifth starter until Oct. 3? Will Mickey Moniak, Matt Vierling and/or Matt Joyce be on the playoff roster? Will Seranthony Dominguez improve his control for a call-up?
The reasoning for Medina is the law of averages. Translation: It only takes one or two relievers to have their one bad outing out of five during any specific contest. And many fans will assume the pen is a failure because those games don’t fade from memory like the good ones. Ergo, each in-game reliever diminishes being successful.
To reiterate the missing pieces in ‘21, a Strasburg, an Acuna, a deGrom, an Osuna, a Hoskins and others in the NL East alone won't be helping their franchises capture the divisional flag. Therefore, assuming the final weeks will be injury-free is saying fresh players are probably more vulnerable in the first 20 games.
According to a retired star, going from 60 games to a full 162 means regulars are weary. Plus there are annual injuries and the now overage of soft-tissue problems, and the coronavirus can quarantine anyone for 10 days. Ergo, any contender can lose a star, so what is the only reliable Phillies forecast? It’s unpredictable!
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Pitching Roles' Breakdown
