Phillies, NL East: 2021’s New National Predictions

By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor

Many Philadelphia Phillies fans view September depending on recent games. And if the team wins or loses multiple contests, they will either anticipate October baseball, hope for more victories, or express defeatist sentiments; but ups and downs are the stretch-drive norm. Reality can be illusive!                     

The Ride Continues:

Despite eight consecutive triumphs, the Phillies aren’t a 90-win franchise. And their recent 4-8 mark doesn’t make them an also-ran either. No, 12-8 is .600 ball, and they played 14-10 (15-10 is .600) through July 30 to force the execs to add at the trading deadline with .583 ball.    

IN OTHER WORDS:

“Losing streaks are funny. If you lose at the beginning, you got off to a bad start. If you lose in the middle of the season, you're in a slump. If you lose at the end, you're choking” – Gene Mauch

In fact, hot or cold streaks have some predictability because good or bad does come to an end. And the other ballgames are .500: win two, lose two. Moreover, everybody has one thing only a few can control: confidence in themselves (players) or their club (fans).      

When regulars have it, they can produce above their talent level during a “time bubble” leading to a string of victories for the active 26. But a couple bad games are the opening for doubts to grow into prolonged slumps or losing streaks for the franchise. Ergo, sunshine or rain.               

For MLB supporters, most “believe” the triumphant times won’t end, and –when they do– they can have a range of emotions from disappointment to extreme anger. And then they question the organization and the players, who can’t control their own self-doubt. Translation: Only success can eliminate negative thoughts.    

Before the Fightins swept the Washington Nationals and New York Mets, they had recorded a 5-6 mark including a 4-4 home record against two divisional contenders. But they also had salvaged the Sunday matinee in Pittsburgh before seeing a different team in Washington and pouncing on the skeleton crew left behind.

Phillies MLB Standings:

(through Aug. 22)

While the Nationals were dealing with an angry Juan Soto after moving their ace, two stars and the bullpen’s back end, the Mets were on a 4-8 run. And the first whispers about Jacob deGrom were circulating, while the red pinstripes were on a five-game winning streak before ballooning it to eight straight.     

When they came to Philly, the Los Angeles Dodgers were on a 5-3 run and playing to win the National League West, not a wild card. Plus the Cincinnati Reds' only way to the playoffs was catching the San Diego Padres, and their recent mark was 11-5. Yes, the Dodgers are challenging the San Francisco Giants, and the Reds passed the Pads.    

After losing four of six home contests to Los Angeles (NL) and Cincinnati, the Phillies had their confidence punctured. But keep in mind, even a losing team has winning streaks against top clubs at home. For the Fightins, this meant facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, who had just taken three of four from the Friars.                        

To elaborate, just because a team in divisional contention is facing the organization with the worst NL record, it doesn’t mean taking two of three is a given; or something is amiss. One exception is a last-place club having a home hot streak due to short-lived confidence and defeating a struggling postseason hopeful.                  

To sum up, the Nats and Metropolitans were going in the wrong direction, but the Dodgers and Reds were on an upward course. And they planted seeds of doubt in the Phils' heads with the confident D-backs up next. Normally, three in Phoenix is mostly perfect with few exceptions: This was one.  

2021 Current Predictions on August 22:

1. FanGraphs
2. Pecota (Baseball Prospectus)
3. FiveThirtyEight (*from May 1)

Positives on the Horizon:

Despite two bad appearances out of his last six, Aaron Nola went 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA and lost two shutouts after recording 26 outs. And Ranger Suarez probably won’t need the pen due to a pitch count, plus Zach Eflin could return after one more rehab start. Shortly, they’ll be at full strength.                

Ian Kennedy, Archie Bradley and Hector Neris are the strongest three firemen the red pinstripes have had in years. Realistically, they didn’t have a healthy squad in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Plus they’ll have Jose Alvarado returning if his Sunday bullpen session went without issue, and three other relievers are on short rehabs.                   

Problem-wise, offense has recently been a weakness, but Rhys Hoskins is back in the lineup. Management had placed him on the IL (injured list) on Aug. 10 or game one against Los Angeles (NL), and the Phillies had a 3-8 mark from that date through Aug. 21. In fact, they only swept the Mets without him.  

Schedule from Aug. 23 through Sept. 1:

The Fightins are facing the Tampa Bay Rays, who have won six of their last seven including four against the Baltimore Orioles and are in first place by four games over the New York Yankees. Meanwhile, the red pinstripes bounced back to take two of three from the Padres, who are trending downward with a 2-9 record.                           

The Atlanta Braves had won 16 of their last 18 ballgames: 14-1 versus the Nationals, the Miami Marlins and the Orioles. However, the Yanks had been triumphant in 16 of their last 19: 8-2 against the Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox. Plus they can’t allow the Rays to increase their lead.                 

Presently, both Los Angeles and San Francisco want to capture the NL West pennant and avoid the NL Wild Card Game. But now only 2.5 games separate these west coast teams after the weekend.    

Although Atlanta has a 4.5-game lead in the NL East, their fans on a daily game thread are leary of closer Will Smith even against Baltimore with their 18-game losing streak. And they want Richard Rodriquez, the former closer of the Pittsburgh Pirates, to secure their victories: They dread every save opportunity.                  

To reiterate my article’s basis, most Phillies can’t avoid slumps and the doubts to lengthen them. And many locals lose faith as losses pile up, but they get caught up in the euphoria when the Fightins are peaking. So, if you can’t control your own ups and downs, what do you expect from the stars? Only positive emotions?  

NEXT:

September’s Pluses for 2021-22