Phillies, NL East: 2021’s New National Predictions

By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor

As the second half begins, some Philadelphia Phillies fans are skeptical of their team’s chances in the National League East. Rightly or wrongly, they believe the worst is coming, but five national publications say otherwise. Yet after many locals had expected a .500 club, some now feel differently.

Stretch Drive Ahead:

Phillies faithful are either optimists or pessimists. However, only pessimistic supporters claim they are realists, while they point out the organization’s every shortcoming, real or perceived. And although they make suggestions, all fans do.   

IN OTHER WORDS:

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” – William Arthur Ward

Some –who refer to themselves as realists– think the Fightins are only a 75-win franchise. Ergo, they will have a 75-87 record: 12 games under .500 despite being at .500 with a 44-44 mark. They, then, would finish the campaign at 31-43. Not a .500 team?            

Even though forecasts have questionable accuracy, the national prediction sites list the red pinstripes with 81 to 83.1 victories. So, disbelieving this soothsaying is basically stating the eye test for the fielded product is more reliable than the number crunchers’ evaluations. 

2021 Current Predictions on July 11:

• 1: FanGraphs
• 2: Davenport
• 3: Pecota (Baseball Prospectus)
• 4: RotoChamp (Avg. of the other 4)
• 5: FiveThirtyEight (*from May 1)

With their increased offense, the possible reasons are the 1-8 regulars in the lineup simultaneously, the substance rule for hurlers enforced, and hitting season. Likely, it’s a combination of all three. In fact, the main weakness is a right-handed bench bat: generally, a veteran’s role.   

Barring an injury or an unexpected event, regulars won’t have a replacement, offensively or defensively. This group can score enough runs in combination with adequate defense, a decent rotation and a competent relief corps. Basically, manager Joe Girardi has the flexibility for lineup adjustments and resting regulars.  

In the pen, the Phillies must first settle the closer’s role between Ranger Suarez, Jose Alvarado and Archie Bradley. Realistically, Bradley and Alvarado will handle the seventh and eighth innings if Suarez is the ninth-frame answer. But the pitching coach will work with Alvarado on his control to unlock his potential.    

Generally, Alvarado needs 7-8 consecutive outings with three walks total before having another closing shot if Suarez has difficulty. And the other bullpen pieces will fall into innings prior to Bradley, Alvarado and Suarez. But if the plan doesn’t work, Dave Dombrowski will consider acquiring a closer if they’re in the hunt.  

Note: Ninety percent of my opinions are what they did, are doing, or will probably do –not should do– from a business and management view. To illustrate, whether the Phils, Atlanta Braves or Washington Nationals will be buyers in July depends on playing .600 ball through July 22, the competition and the standings.   

Many express concern over the bottom rotation rungs, but most clubs have the same issue due to injuries, ineffectiveness and five-inning arms with a 4.50 ERA or higher. Realistically, it’s an overall lack of major league talent, pitching costs and/or roster offsets like offense-dependent Boston.                                

If you only judge Vince Velasquez by his last poor outing, you aren’t doing it Girardi’s way. Unfortunately, many formed a belief based on his ninth MLB start and expected an ace. And though he wasn’t one then, he is a decent four who can toss 6-7 frames when his control doesn’t abandon him: Girardi now trusts him.                  

Matt Moore is a five-inning hurler whom Girardi pairs with Bailey Falter –for now– to reach 6-7 frames. In the pipeline, though, the strategy for Spencer Howard is to reach 100 pitches per contest, and his last two had counts of 68 and 84 respectively. Results: 1-0 and a 0.96 ERA. 

Phillies Rotation before the Sox Series:

• Wheeler (2.26 ERA), Nola (4.53 ERA) and Eflin (3.88 ERA).
• Velasquez: 17 Gms. (4 relief), 70 Inn., 3-3, a 4.50 ERA and a 0.5 fWAR.
• Moore: 11 Gms. (6 relief), 27 ⅓ Inn., 0-1, a 5.60 ERA and a -0.2 fWAR.

Phillies Rotation after the Sox Series:

• Wheeler (2.26 ERA), Nola (4.53 ERA) and Eflin (3.88 ERA).
• Velasquez: 18 Gms. (4 relief), 72 ⅓ Inn., 3-4, a 5.35 ERA and a 0.0 fWAR.
• Moore: 12 Gms. (6 relief), 31 ⅔  Inn., 0-1, a 5.40 ERA and a -0.3 fWAR.

Mets Rotation before September:

• deGrom (1.08 ERA), Stromen (2.75 ERA) and Walker (2.50 ERA).
• Carrasco: IL until late July or early August for Mets’ debut.
• Megill: 4 Gms., 18 Inn., 0-0, a 3.50 ERA and a 0.2 fWAR.
• Oswalt: 3 Gms. (2 relief), 10 ⅓ Inn., 1-1, a 3.48 ERA and a 0.1 fWAR.

NL EAST:

New York Mets supporters believe their new owner (also a fan) will do what they would do, but he’s now on the other side of the equation, where things look different. Moneywise, he has two starters and a regular who will be free agents plus adding a $21.6 million AAV (average annual value) to reinstate Robinson Cano.                                   

Salary increases –now– make exceeding the $210 million CBT (competitive-balance threshold) difficult also for 2022’s CBT if they keep Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Michael Conforto. However, Syndergaard and Conforto aren’t sure bets either, so paying a penalty for ‘21 is a toss-up.

Phillies Competition:

• Mets: Since their best record of 35-25, they are 12-15.
• Nationals: Since June 30 before injuries, they are 2-9.

Even though the Braves ownership will allow additional spending, they won’t for a .500 team. Therefore, their pitching must dramatically improve to pick up better arms for the five-man staff and the relief corps. Or their bats must carry them like they have in recent summers except without Ronald Acuna Jr.                            

Usually, Atlanta’s strength has come from Acuna, Freddie Freeman and other regulars chipping in with knocks and RBIs. But Acuna’s injury dramatically changes that formula, so they’ll probably drop in the standings.

Braves Rotation:

• Fried (4.66 ERA), Morton (3.64 ERA) and Anderson (3.56 ERA).
• Smyly: 15 Gms., 78 ⅓ Inn., 7-3, a 4.48 ERA and a 0.2 fWAR.
• Muller: 4 Gms. (1 relief), 15 ⅔ Inn., 1-1, a 3.48 ERA and a 0.4 fWAR.

Nationals Rotation:

• Scherzer (2.66 ERA) and Corbin (5.40 ERA).
• Strasburg: 21 ⅔ Inn. (IL until late July).
• Lester: 14 Gms., 63 ⅓ Inn., 2-4, a 5.54 ERA and a -0.1 fWAR. 
• Fedde: 13 Gms., 64 ⅔  Inn., 4-6, a 4.59 ERA and a 0.7 fWAR.
• Espino: 20 Gms. (15 relief), Gms., 43 ⅔ Inn.,  2-2, a 2.89 ERA and a 0.5 fWAR.

Presently, the Nats are one step ahead of the Braves on their descent below .500 with Kyle Schwarber’s absence. But their plan, originally, was the added offense of Schwarber and Josh Bell to Trea Turner and Juan Soto. And until Schwarber (significant hamstring injury) returns, they’ll have more difficulty scoring.       

Pitching-wise, Patrick Corbin is having a down year, and Stephen Strasburg has missed most of this 162. Contrary to their strategy, however, their big three aren’t shouldering the workload. And their five-man staff hasn’t matched the execs’ 2021 blueprint.      

Why are many players and some hurlers streaky like Rhys Hoskins? Well, they have a fragile mindset: a “glass jaw.” Whether they’re on a hot streak or in a cold spell, it boils down to one ingredient, present or missing, and what magic is that? Confidence!   

NEXT:

Addressing 2021’s Plans