By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor
Who will be the Philadelphia Phillies Opening Day starter in 2017? It's probably not something you want to put any money on.
If he accepts the team's qualifying offer, which it sounds like the Phillies wouldn't mind, Jeremy Hellickson figures to get his second straight Opening Day start. That said, the team won't re-sign him over getting a compensatory pick, so if he doesn't accept the qualifying offer, someone else will be the team's Opening Day starter in 2017.
If Hellickson doesn't return, the Phillies will need to sign and/or trade for at least one Hellickson type to eat innings in 2017, so it's possible that the team's 2017 Opening Day starter isn't currently in the organization.
If the Opening Day starter is someone internal, however, Jerad Eickhoff quietly seems to be the favorite. The 26-year-old has gone 10-13 in his first full major league season in 2016, while posting a 3.73 ERA in 29 starts. By the time the season is over, Eickhoff will have thrown north of 185 innings, which puts him in the innings eater category and also means he won't face any sort of innings restriction in 2017.
Aaron Nola, barring any health setbacks, will be one of the first starters used in 2016, though he's likely to be on an innings limit and didn't finish the 2016 season well, so an Opening Day nod seems unlikely. Vince Velasquez, barring a trade or a move to the bullpen, probably falls into the same category. And Jake Thompson will likely be in the rotation to open the season, but hasn't earned consideration to be the team's Opening Day starter.
It should be noted that regardless of who starts for the team on Opening Day 2017, Nola, Velasquez and Thompson still are likely the most important arms in the team's organization. It's nice that someone like Eickhoff has emerged and seems to have forced his way into the team's long-term plans as well, but the success of the aforementioned trio may ultimately determine the success of the team.
The nuggets
- Had Pete Mackanin not signed an extension prior to this season, the Phillies would have had to decide whether to pick up his option for 2017 or not. While the jury remains out on his long-term future as the club's manager, I don't think there's any question they would have picked up his option for 2017 after this season.
- I'll elaborate more on this later this week, but things don't seem to be trending towards Odubel Herrera being on the Phillies in 2017, in my opinion.