The Phillies have engaged in many trade talks already in this offseason, but so far they have just accumulated inventory to sit at AAA and possibly end up in the big leagues to replace someone cast away. The Phillies need change, but the grim reality is, even when their players might have value, teams are simply not trading prospects.
Yesterday, Curt Schilling took a break from defending creationism to say that the Phillies are in a real mess:
"They have un-tradeable contracts. Which are a nightmare. The Yankees have always bought their way out of those. But I don't see that happening with this club. This is a club that has some superstar talent that is just crushed by some really, really bad contracts."
Meanwhile, the one good contract that one would think is tradeable is pitcher Cole Hamels. Hamels himself would not mind a trade:
Hamels knows he can’t say a word.
Yet, if his world could possibly be a little more perfect, he’d love to be traded this winter.
He won’t demand a trade, or even complain, but four years ago when he signed his extension, he believed the Phillies would be a perennial power for the life of the contract.
But, the Phillies would want top notch prospects back for Hamels. The big names that one would want back: Kris Bryant of the Cubs and Mookie Betts of the Red Sox? They are off limits. Both teams would trade for Hamels, but they are not ponying up any of their top prospects. Anyone the Phillies would get back would be second-tier.
Look at the trade deadline in July:
- David Price to Detroit. Tigers outfielder Austin Jackson to Seattle and infielder Nick Franklin to Tampa Bay. Pitcher Drew Smyly heads from Detroit to Tampa Bay.
- Athletics outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to the Red Sox for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes.
- Yankees trade Kelly Johnson to the Red Sox for Stephen Drew.
- Martin Prado from the Diamondbacks to the Yankees for catcher Peter O'Brien
The only real prospect traded in this deadline was O'Brien, and O'Brien is only rated the seventh best prospect in the Diamondbacks' system. O'Brien is someone they feel must move from behind the plate in order to be successful.
The last trade with legitimate prospects came when the Athletics sent two former first round picks in Addison Russell and Billy McKinney to the Cubs for pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Some analysts thought that Oakland General Manager Billy Beane is taking advantage of an atmosphere where prospects are overvalued. This trade was necessary since Samardzija had no intention to re-sign with the team, and it has given the Cubs an excess.
But, the Cubs are not willing to give them up so easily. Cubs General Manager Jed Hoyer said as much:
"We've obviously spent three years building up our farm system through a lot of painful trades and Drafts,'' Hoyer said Tuesday at the General Managers Meetings. "The idea we would so rapidly deplete it to go for it is pretty unlikely.''
If the Phillies trade Hamels to the Cubs, they are likely to pick from players at least four, if not five and below from their top prospect list, and maybe some of their now-major leaguers at other positions. Perhaps Arismendy Alcantara could be had, maybe even Javier Baez, who came into the league with a bang and ended the season with a big thud. But forget about Russell, Bryant, Soler, and maybe even Albert Almora. Think more in terms of 21 year-old catcher Kyle Schwarber.
The teams that have prospects and have money are more likely to simply sign Jon Lester or Max Scherzer than to give up prospects. In the meanwhile, the Phillies need to accumulate potential bodies by any means possible, especially by signing every international free agent that they can. A Yasmany Tomas signing could come as soon as today, and if the Phillies miss out – their prospects of prospects is all but eliminated.
