By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor 
When the Philadelphia Phillies elected to hold onto Jeremy Hellickson after the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline — and the Sept. 1 waiver trade deadline to a lesser extent — the thinking was that if they extended the free-agent to be a qualifying offer, he would likely turn it down, allowing the Phillies to collect a compensatory round pick when he signed a multi-year deal elsewhere.
While that scenario remains in the realm of possibility, Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball notes that the Phillies wouldn't consider it a failure if the 29-year-old chose to accept the qualifying offer and return to Philadelphia for 2017:
There seems to be an idea among some Phillies people they might extend a qualifying offer to Jeremy Hellickson, with the thinking being that he’d be likely to turn it down but they’d be OK if he accepted as they liked his consistency and professionalism (their payroll is expected to be very low next year, with Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz and other coming off the books).
ESPN's Buster Olney reported in July that the expectation around the league is that the qualifying offer this winter is expected to be in the neighborhood of $16.7 million, which certainly would be more than Hellickson would get on the open market. If he rejected the qualifying offer, which is possible considering that his agent is Scott Boras and this winter's pitching market isn't deep, he would take less money for 2017 in hopes of getting three or four guaranteed years.
While the Phillies would certainly prefer to get a high draft pick for Hellickson signing elsewhere, overpaying Hellickson for a season wouldn't be an issue, as Heyman noted. The Phillies will need at least one Hellickson type in 2017, given the youth of their rotation, a likely innings limit for Aaron Nola and the knowledge of Vince Velasquez's tendency to get injured.
Hellickson, who was the team's Opening Day starter in 2016, has gone 10-9 with a 3.90 ERA over 166 innings in his first season with the team. If he were to accept the qualifying offer, which would seem to be the only way that he would return to the team in 2017, he would seem to be the favorite to start on Opening Day.
