By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor
For a good portion of the summer, the Miami Marlins seemed to be the most likely suitor for Philadelphia Phillies starter Jeremy Hellickson at the league's non-waiver trade deadline. Ultimately, the Marlins, like the rest of the league, seemed to think that the Phillies overvalued Hellickson at the trade deadline, which meant that the Marlins weren't able to upgrade by landing someone like Hellickson and the Phillies weren't able to move Hellickson for a potential top prospect.
Whether the Phillies ultimately issue Hellickson a qualifying offer or not this off-season — the guess here is that they will — the Marlins again seem to believe that Hellickson will be overvalued. Perhaps the Phillies won't overvalue Hellickson in free-agency, but a seemingly week free-agent class has the Marlins thinking Hellickson will be too expensive for them to land, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald:
Marlins officials will meet this coming week to formulate strategy. But unless there’s a change of heart, they’re not expected to have a big enough budget to afford one of the most expensive free agent pitchers such as Jeremy Hellickson or Rich Hill, though they like Hellickson. They will need to find a cheaper option from a weak free agent class.
Though the Marlins finished 79-82 in 2016, they were in the Wild Card race for much of the season, seemingly another starting pitcher or two away from being a playoff team. Unfortunately, Marlins ace Jose Fernandez tragically passed away in late September, leaving the Marlins with both holes at the bottom of their rotation and a seemingly impossible one to fill at the top of their rotation.
Hellickson was nothing short of dominant against the Marlins in his first season in the National League East, posting a 2.01 ERA in six starts against the Marlins, including tossing a complete-game shutout on Sept. 17.
Hellickson will likely receive at least a three-year deal in free-agency, and if the Phillies extend Hellickson a qualifying offer, any potential suitor would have to both pay for Hellickson to come to their team and give up their highest unprotected draft pick.
The 29-year-old went 12-10 with a 3.71 ERA and a career high 3.2 WAR (per FanGraphs) over 189 innings in 2016. The Phillies reportedly would like to re-sign their 2016 Opening Day starter prior to him reaching free-agency, though given the lack of starting pitching that will be free-agents this off-season it seems that Hellickson accepting a potential qualifying offer would be the most likely path to him returning to the Phillies for the 2017 season.