In 2015, the Philadelphia Phillies' starting rotation was the picture of instability. The team opened up the season, due to how the schedule fell, with a four-man rotation. Cole Hamels was the ace, and he was joined by Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams and David Buchanan. Due to trades, options and injuries, not a single one of those four starters was in the Phillies' rotation at the end of the season.
If you were going to draw up a formula for how to obtain the No. 1 pick, having none of the members of your Opening Day starting rotation — and many of their replacements, finish the season in the rotation, would be a pretty good place to start.
General manager Matt Klentak did his best to fix that this off-season, acquiring two veteran arms that will immediately slide into the team's rotation and one young arm that he hopes will be a stalwart in the rotation for years to come.
Part three of our Phillies Season Outlook series discusses whether the Phillies' rotation can show glimpses of a brighter future in 2016.
Rotation:
Jeremy Hellickson
The Phillies acquired their Opening Day starter this off-season in a trade from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hellickson has had a strong Spring Training, which probably excites a front-office that hopes to flip him in a trade this summer. The one problem with hoping that Hellickson will return to being the player that he was at the beginning of his career is that advanced statistics suggests he got lucky early in his career to a degree. Through the first 70 starts of his career, he had a 3.17 ERA, but he had a 4.31 FIP. Since then, he has made 104 starts and posted a 4.77 ERA, which is much closer to the 4.27 FIP he's had in that time period. So the Phillies can hope for Hellickson to impress enough to become a July trade candidate, but he would probably bring back a C level return.
Aaron Nola
The 2014 first-round pick had a solid debut in 2015, going 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA (4.04 FIP, 3.58 xFIP) in his first 13 starts at the big league level. Though the Phillies have suggested they won't push their young pitchers to throw a ton of innings this year, he's probably looking at throwing in the neighborhood of 100 more innings than he did when he threw 77.2 innings in 2015. Most projections have Nola's ERA in 2015 dipping closer to the 4.04 FIP that he had in 2015, and while he's probably a No. 3 starter on a very good team, those projections may be selling him a bit short. Nola could very well have some rough patches in his first full season at the big league level, though it's certainly fair to think he could have an ERA more in the 3.80 range and even toss a complete game or two in 2016.
Charlie Morton
Though Hellickson is going to start Opening Day, Morton's potential trade candidacy this summer is fairly similar. Morton has a lower career FIP than and xFIP than Hellickson, and his 2013 season, though it was just 20 starts, is as or more impressive than any stretch of Hellickson's big league career. Morton, who is making $9.5 million, is projected by most outlets to have a lower ERA than Hellickson, meaning one or both of them could be dealt later this summer for potential depth pieces.
Jerad Eickhoff
Eickhoff was considered the fourth best piece that the Phillies got in the Cole Hamels' trade last July, but in his limited time in the big leagues he performed like someone that could potentially sway the historical outlook on the trade in the Phillies' favor. In eight starts for the team, Nola posted a 2.65 ERA, while adding in a 3.25 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. For some pitchers that surpass expectations, both FIP and xFIP are clear indicators of what level the pitcher is more likely to pitch at in the future. For Eickhoff, if he posts an ERA of either 3.25 or 3.60 in 2016, the Phillies would be thrilled.
Vince Velasquez
Velasquez was the key piece acquired in the Ken Giles trade this off-season, and although Adam Morgan statistically outperformed him this spring, a late spring surge from Velasquez allowed him to finish this spring with a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings. Whether Velasquez's long-term future ends up being as a front-line starter or a closer remains to be seen, but it appears the Phillies want to try him as a starter first, which makes sense considering a closer is much easier to find than a top of the rotation starter.
First Man Up
Adam Morgan
Morgan is going to start the season in Triple-A, but only because general manager Matt Klentak did a good enough job of building up rotation depth that the Phillies had at least six starters good enough to be in the Opening Day rotation.
Morgan had a 2.00 ERA in three games this spring, following a 4.48 ERA in 15 starts last season. Expect — due to injuries, under-performances and trades — Morgan to make at least 15 starts this year. Based off of his spring performance, he may pitch well enough this year to secure a spot heading into 2017.
Potential Breakout Player – Vince Velasquez
Velasquez still has many attributes that point to him potentially being suited towards being a closer in the long-term, but what he's shown in his last two Spring Training starts are indicative of why the Phillies believe he could be a front-line starter.
The 23-year-old who was the top piece in this off-season's Ken Giles trade, has allowed just five hits and one run over the course of his last 11 spring innings, often flashing his mid-90s fastball.
It's difficult to project Velasquez statistically, but based off of what he's shown in spring, it's fair to wonder if after this season Nola and Eickhoff won't be afterthoughts to Velasquez and Jake Thompson.
Potential Letdown – Jerad Eickhoff
The potential for Eickhoff as a let-down doesn't come because his advanced stats say that he got lucky last year, but rather because he just outperformed any possible expectations that anyone could have had for him. After the July blockbuster trade of Cole Hamels, Eickhoff outperformed one of the best pitchers in club history.
So suggesting Eickhoff will take a step back is more of an opinion, based on him probably pitching over his head in a short stint in 2015, than a fact that is backed up by anything that's happened in his major league career.
Most projections suggest that Eickhoff will pitch north of 140 innings in 2016, while having an ERA in the 4.00 range. All things considered, if Eickhoff were to win 13 games and finish the season with a 4.05 ERA, that wouldn't be a bad season. It would feel like a step back, though, especially considering how well he pitched in his stint in 2015.
What's Next
The fourth installment of our Phillies Season Outlook breaks down the Phillies' bullpen. Given the off-season trade of closer Ken Giles, and the lack of a clear replacement for him as the regular season nears, the bullpen may be the team's biggest question mark heading into the 2016 season. The piece will run on Thursday, March 31st.
Prior Entries
Phillies Season Outlook Part I: The Starting Lineup
Phillies Season Outlook Part II: The Bench
Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) is the Managing Editor of Philliedelphia.com, focusing on news and features.
