Phillies: September’s Pluses for 2021-22

By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor

For the Philadelphia Phillies faithful, this is the race for the National League East crown, and you’ve probably experienced the euphoric highs and doubting lows. Plus the final month will only grow more intense as the days fall from the calendar like leaves from an autumnal tree. Welcome to the Show!                        

First Pennant Race:

While generals and the president discuss the country’s fate, the Phillies will negotiate the schedule to outmaneuver the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. For skipper Joe Girardi, September’s squad can score and has starters who can put zeros on the board with a reliable –albeit not perfect– relief corps.            

IN OTHER WORDS:

“The more baseball the better. It is a healthful sport and develops team play and initiative, plus an independent attitude.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower

The batting order has left-side power from Bryce Harper balanced by the right-handed Rhys Hoskins plus secondary pop from Andrew McCutchen (right) and Didi Gregorius (left). Atop the everyday eight, Jean Segura is a hitting machine, but Odubel Herrera leads off to lengthen the lineup if he’s on a hot streak.                   

While the Fightins have solid defense from JT Realmuto, Harper, Segura and Herrera, Hoskins and McCutchen are adequate. But Gregorius is a “Jekyll and Hyde” with the glove and bat. However, he can make a dazzling play on the dirt or launch a ball into the upper deck.   

With the leather, Ronald Torreyes and Freddy Galvis can plug defensive holes if they arise. And though neither are automatic outs, both provide decent bottom-of-the-order hitting, while sometimes their bats shine brighter than their golden gloves. 

Benchwise, Brad Miller is the main left-handed threat against righties as a pinch hitter and a fill-in for regulars. But right-hitting Alec Bohm currently is the opposite-swinging preference due to his fielding and throwing errors. Yes, Galvis is working with him, but this isn’t the time for development.           

When it comes to fans, some have exaggerated expectations in either direction. In fact, one radio personality anticipated three .300 hitters with the Segura and Realmuto acquisitions. So, Harper was probably the other the radio voice had in mind. Also some locals expect too much from a five-slot hurler.

Basically, it's difficult to rank a bottom-rung starter without a major league or even divisional comparison. In April, the rotation-loaded Mets had David Peterson as their five. And though the Braves have had six pitchers for 35 starts with Touki Toussaint with just six outings as their current five, Drew Smyly is their four.     

NL East Comparison (through Aug. 17):

• *Five-slot David Peterson, almost 26: 15 Gms., 66 ⅔ Inn., 4.4 Avg. Inn., 2-6, a 5.54 ERA and a 0.4 fWAR.
• Four-slot Drew Smyly, 32: 21 Gms., 106 Inn., 5.0 Avg. Inn., 8-3, a 4.50 ERA and a 0.6 fWAR (the Braves have a revolving-door five spot).
• **Phillies Zach Eflin, 27: 18 Gms., 105 ⅔ Inn., 5.9 Avg. Inn., 4-7, a 4.17 ERA and a 2.2 fWAR.
• fWAR: Fangraphs wins above replacement (average pitcher: 0.0 fWAR).
• ** IL (injured list) * Season-ending injury.

Phillies Rotation Projection (through Aug. 17):

Behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the five-man staff will also feature Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin and Ranger Suarez. Plus the trading-deadline addition of closer Ian Kennedy also allowed management to start Suarez every fifth day. Moreover, Eflin could return in two weeks after a minor league rehab assignment.       

Gibson is a solid three-slot arm with a six-bullet repertoire: a four-seam fastball, cutter, sinker, changeup, slider and curveball. And if he commands four of his six average pitches –he usually does– he’ll mostly handle 6-7 innings. For the red pinstripes, he’s 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA after three performances. 

Eflin will probably have another simulation game after Sunday’s 28-bullet effort, and he’ll likely have one MiLB rehab appearance. Then, he’ll be on a pitch count for a late August start, but it’ll depend on his arm strength. Note: Matt Moore’s next outing may influence the timeframe. Crossed fingers!                  

Suarez went through Triple-A as a starter, and he controls four offerings: a sinker, four-seam fastball, slider and changeup. Soon, he’ll be up to 100 pitches and 6-7 frames every fifth day. But playoff clubs only need four starters, so he’ll be a better pen option than most five-slot hurlers in a long or back-end role. 

With Kennedy’s swap, some didn’t want Suarez in the rotation because of his relieving success. Yes, he was flourishing even more in the bullpen than 2019. But some envisioned him in the eighth inning ahead of Kennedy.                

Meanwhile, the alternatives were Moore and Chase Anderson until Eflin’s reactivation before roster expansion. But they weren’t acceptable to the higher-ups because the Fightins might not have an eighth-frame lead with either veteran.

With a bench of Andrew Knapp, Miller, Bohm, Galvis and an outfielder, the Phils can carry 13 moundsmen in the postseason and 15 during September with a 28-man roster. So, if the pitching staff is at full strength, the good guys can add two from Bailey Falter, JD Hammer, Moore and/or Anderson.                

In September, the Phillies will handle the fifth and sixth innings with Connor Brogdon, Sam Coonrod, Vince Velasquez and Seranthony Dominguez: The last three will rejoin the team in August. But any of the four could see occasional work in the seventh frame.             

For the seventh and eighth innings, southpaw Jose Alvarado, Hector Neris and Archie Bradley will set up for Kennedy. But he hasn’t worked more than consecutive days, so these setup men will occasionally handle the ninth. Yes, these firemen are obviously not the main closer, but filling in is livable.  

With a four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup and curveball, Kennedy has a starter’s arsenal and command after nine full summers working every fifth day. And he has shown his effectiveness when the red pinstripes have a two-run lead by shutting down the opposition without Houdini-like escapes.         

In 2007, Brett Myers had fired the last bullet of the regular schedule, and Brad Lidge twirled the final slider of 2008. But the leaping Tug McGraw was their predecessor in 1980, so would his imagined facial expression reveal his emotional state with a Kennedy delivering the last pitch on October 3 in Miami? Smiling Irish eyes!    

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