Phillies Spending Options for 2021

By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor

While the Philadelphia Phillies will have a new front office for 2022, it could be 2021 if president Andy MacPhail retires a year early. Basically, managing partner John Middleton prefers a fresh start for the 2020-21 offseason, but the big-ticket negotiations will belong to him regardless.   

No-man’s-land:

For the Phillies faithful, winter is a time to dream of a roster without holes and bemoan management’s failure to deliver a championship-caliber team. Unfortunately, even the ‘20 New York Yankees had shortcomings despite exceeding all three tax levels involving the CBT (competitive-balance threshold).  

IN OTHER WORDS:

“No pessimist ever discovered the secret of the stars, or sailed to an uncharted land, or opened a new doorway for the human spirit.” – Helen Keller

Fans aren’t differentiating between the normal 162 with spending, signings, trades and offseason preparation compared to 2021. And excluding the inconvenient details facing front-office execs amplifies expectations no GM can meet. Yes, 2021’s certainty is uncertainty!                                 

Prior to COVID-19’s influence, organizations made decisions based on rules protecting players from losing career opportunities due to franchises with overstocked pipelines. Moreover, management combines their talent planning for three to five summers, not just next April.

Due to the pandemic, 2020 had many new wrinkles: the universal DH, no spectators, COVID-19 protocols, a truncated schedule, and other rule changes, temporary and permanent. So no one should assume a return to normalcy without better control of the virus. However, 2021 should have more games and some attendance.

Amid financial losses like the Fightins’$100 million and unreported millions by other MLB clubs, they will historically have unique determinations for arb-eligible personnel and $18.9 million QOs (qualifying offers) for stars like Didi Gregorius. But superstars including JT Realmuto will be atop wish lists, real or perceived.

While these elements are individually challenging, deep-pocketed teams will avoid adding more than one top-tier starter or hitter through signing, re-upping or swapping. And already inked stars include Gerrit Cole and Mookie Betts, but the other possibilities are Realmuto, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer and Nolan Arenado.               

If fan bases expect more than one marque name, their supporters will experience unnecessary disappointment. Basically, the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers have inked their big-ticket star, plus the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox aren’t one big acquisition away from the World Series due to multiple holes to plug.                    

As for the Washington Nationals, they re-signed Stephen Strasburg, and the New York Mets will likely be the top competition to overpay for Realmuto. Ergo, losing the All-Star catcher isn’t a foregone conclusion especially with the circumstances and a “30 percent deferred money” approach like the Betts deal.  

Vulture’s Market:

The biggest iffs ahead involve a full slate with limited attendance, but the coronavirus will undoubtedly affect the contests scheduled, clubs played, the AAV percentage and penalties, the competition, contract values and spring training. So, some organizations may now move on from some players and not bid on or re-up others.   

For ‘21, the first CBT boundary is $210 million, and the second one is $230 million. Realistically, many deep-pocketed franchises like the Phillies are willing to pay the 20 percent tax or $3-4 million if they have a realistic postseason shot. But, then, they’ll drop under the first limit to reset the tax rate for future seasons.  

Dollar amounts according to FanGraphs.   

*MLBTR arbitration estimate based on 162-game projected stats.

**AAV (average annual value). 

**** Buyouts, benefits, 40-man salaries and Odubel Herrera’s AAV contract.

Dollar amounts according to FanGraphs.   

MLBTR arbitration estimate based on 162-game projected stats.

*** Prorated percentage based on a 162-game schedule for 2020.

For Middleton, the front-office situation is MacPhail retiring now and having new executives for this winter’s roster construction. But will MacPhail step down for a new president to hire a GM, or will he and interim general manager Ned Rice finish the upcoming campaign?  A buyout, no?

Without knowing the competition’s financials, some excellent players may be available due to cost-cutting measures, but the red pinstripes are somewhat familiar with those teams. Unfortunately, those clubs aren’t advertising, and the Phils are their usual tight-lipped selves.    

According to the current numbers for a standard 162, the Fightins have committed $148.3 million AAV for 2021 to leave roughly $61.7 million AAV before reaching the CBT. And $19 million AAV to exceed the CBT’s first threshold will probably be $9 million AAV for the winter and $10 million AAV for the stretch run.                 

Barring a unique signing opportunity, the Phillies will base their expenditures on an additional $70 million AAV. So, my list includes the bare minimum of 17 with Seranthony Dominguez on the IL (injured list) for 10 open spots: six hurlers and four position players. 

The rotation accounts for five current arms, and the bullpen covers a closer, a lefty reliever and a protected talent on the IL. Basically, inking a starter to slot between Zack Eflin and Spencer Howard will assign Vince Velasquez to the pen. And the Fightins will add setup men from a pool of 2020’s squad and available pitchers.    

*  Estimates could be lower due to MLB’s losses and the pandemic’s uncertainty.

With eight relief corps spots, closer Hector Neris and 2019 standout left-hander Ranger Suarez are the logical choices for two bullpen seats. And the red pinstripes will likely pick up two or three solid “wings'' for setup roles. But if they sign a starter, Velasquez and two others would complete the pen. 

David Robertson with his connections to Joe Girardi is a candidate for an incentive-ladened package to reestablish his market and provide an alternative to Neris for closing or working stressful innings. However, an interesting wrinkle is Dominguez not returning until early August.

Roster Construction: 

The Phils will need four players: two regulars and two reserves. Unfortunately, the plan was for Scott Kingery, Jean Segura and Alec Bohm to join Rhys Hoskins in the infield after Gregorius entered free agency. But Kingery had COVID-19 with some lingering difficulties, a late start, limited comeback time, and health issues.                      

Because last year’s offense was solid, the good guys should keep Gregorius with a QO of $18.9 million because he and Bryce Harper are the left-side-hitting complements to Hoskins and Realmuto. Basically, Gregorius can use the $18.9 million as a stepping-stone to a multi-season pact in ‘20 at $20 million per 162.              

As for Realmuto, the Fightins could offer $23-25 million annually for six campaigns with 30 percent deferred. Yes, Mets fans feel their new owner will make a $200 million proposal, but overpaying by $50-62 million doesn’t match his bidding style. Plus Realmuto wants maximum pay and serious October baseball.  

Pitching-wise, don’t expect a top-dollar free agent for the five-man staff, but anticipate someone young enough to grow with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Eflin and Howard. And even though Jake Odorizzi and Marcus Stroman are available, Tiajuan Walker, 28, could sign for two summers at $16 million total with two team options.   

Re-upping Realmuto ($25 million AAV) with Gregorius ($18.9 million AAV) and inking Walker ($8 million AAV) would cost $52.9 million AAV out of $70-80 million AAV available. Therefore, the red pinstripes would have $17.1 million AAV for two solid relievers and $10 million AAV for the trading deadline to plug unexpected holes.          

With the Phillies needing a late-inning arm and a southpaw, they could sign a $10 million AAV hurler and one for $5-7 million AAV. The closer type could be Liam Hendriks, Alex Colome or Blake Treinen, and the portsider could be Justin Wilson if they ink other free agents instead of re-upping Jose Alvarez.  

Strategically, the offense would be strong by re-signing Realmuto and Gregorius to complement an improved rotation with Walker. And a major bullpen piece like Hendriks with bounce-back candidate Robertson on an inexpensive contract could split duties with Neris: five players for $64 million AAV to total 22 of 26 slots.  

With a coronavirus-influenced ‘21 ahead, many free agents might accept less guaranteed dollars and seasons and ink pacts quickly due to the financial uncertainty of many franchises. In fact, some may take one-year offers for a campaign that could be at either extreme. Bliss or an abyss!

NEXT:

Addressing 2020’s Frequent Conclusions