Leave it to NY Post baseball columnist Jon Heyman to stir the pot during the MLB All-Star break. The longtime scribe has sent the baseball world into a frenzy with one innocuous tweet and corresponding story.
While Cardinals star Nolan Arenado would be surprised to be traded (the Cards almost never sell, especially big stars), he conceded he couldn’t be shocked the way things are going in St. Louishttps://t.co/i6xAZTRiS4
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 11, 2023
Naturally, the Philadelphia sports universe went into a frenzy dreaming about a trade for St. Louis Cardinals’ third baseman Nolan Arenado. It makes sense, right? Afterall, the Cardinals are playing some woeful baseball, sitting at 38-52 and 11.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. Not to mention, Arenado has been a name that Phils fans have been infatuated with dating back to his time with the Colorado Rockies. So, it makes sense that his name should once again pop up on Phils’ fans radar as the 2023 MLB trade deadline approaches.
So, shall we play a game since it’s the MLB All-Star break and nothing is going on? Could Nolan Arenado be on his way to Philadelphia? Why it makes sense, why it doesn’t, and could it happen.
Why Nolan Arenado to the Phillies Makes Sense
Adding Arenado to a lineup would make sense for almost every contending team in Major League Baseball. The 32-year-old has a career slash line of .288/.345/.534 with 318 HR, 1,030 RBI, and a .879 OPS. Arenado is an eight-time MLB All-Star, ten-time Rawling Gold Glove winner, and five-time Louisville Silver Slugger winner. In addition to all of that, Arenado has led the National League in home runs three-times (2015, ‘16, & ‘18) and RBI’s twice (2015 & ‘16).
Arenado’s similarity scores according to Baseball Reference place him in the same category as other infielders Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen. Yes, that’s Hall of Famers Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen. From a batting standpoint, Arenado also compares to Chicago Cubs’ great Ernie Banks, another Hall of Famer.
Adding Arenado to an organization is adding a Cooperstown-bound fielder and bat to the lineup. So yes, adding Arenado makes sense from this perspective. Not to mention, Arenado is likely not going to skip out on “Nolan Arenado Day” like Scotty Baseball did at the turn of the century.
Why Nolan Arenado to the Phillies Doesn’t Make Sense
Why doesn’t Arenado make sense? Let’s start with the haul that will be needed to secure a Hall of Fame level player.
The Cardinals traded an active MLB pitcher, and their No. 8, No. 19, and No. 20 prospects for Arenado in February 2021. Therefore the table is set for the minimum return St. Louis would be asking in return for Arenado. In the current Phillies landscape, that deal would include an MLB level pitcher like Matt Strahm, and prospects like Johan Rojas, Carlos De La Cruz, and Mick Abel to name a few.
That’s a minimum. It’s hard to imagine the Cardinals not asking other top prospects such as Justin Crawford and current lineup pieces like Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott.
Why Bohm or Stott? They immediately become expendable with no position on the field if Arenado were to be added to the Phillies lineup. The Cardinals would also need to replace a Gold Glove/Silver Slugger. Bohm or Stott, while not at that level now, would certainly fit the mold of St. Louis-type player.
In addition to the massive amount of prospects and players to be involved, Arenado’s contract is a financial liability for a club like the Phillies. The slugger has four-years, $109MM remaining on his deal. A $27.25MM hit, in addition to the contracts of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Nick Castellanos, makes Arenado a fiscal liability for the Phillies. That’s not to say they couldn’t do it, but they would have to sacrifice money that would go towards two top of the line pitchers whether they’re already on the roster or not. Sure, they could go further over the luxury tax threshold, but it seems highly unlikely that Phillies ownership would go to that extreme.
Where Does Nolan Arenado End Up?
Arenado is likely staying put in St. Louis despite the Cardinals woeful 2023 season.
First, he has a no-trade clause, and the slugger has already opted-in to stay with the Cardinals until at least 2027. When asked by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch‘s Derrick Goold if he wants to stay in St. Louis, Arenado was emphatic in his response.
“Yeah, absolutely. I opted in for a reason, right? So, you know, I opted in, and if I didn’t feel that way, I wouldn’t have done that.”
- Nolan Arenado on staying in St. Louis
That’s pretty cut and dry if you ask me.
Second, the Cardinals front office despite looking to reboot things, isn’t willing to part with cornerstone players. The Atheltic‘s Katie Woo names Arenado and teammates Lars Nootbar, Willson Contreras, and Jordan Walker as players not likely to be moved. Woo emphatically notes that Paul Goldschmidt is beyond untouchable. Never say never, but it seems pretty obvious that the Cardinals –and by extension Arenado– are selling any of their superstars.
