The Phillies finalized their rosters throughout the system today, from the Major Leagues down. We now know what the teams will look like, and can predict how they will do. Let's take a look at the big league club and upper minors.
Leading off: The Phillies
- Rotation- Cole Hamels, Aaron Harang, David Buchanan, Jerome Williams.
- Line-Up- Odubel Herrera-CF, Ben Revere-LF, Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Howard-1B, Grady Sizemore-RF, Carlos Ruiz-C, Cody Asche-3B, Freddy Galvis-SS.
- Bullpen- Jonathan Papelbon, Ken Giles, Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus, Dustin McGowan, Cesar Jimenez, Jeanmar Gomez, Luis Garcia.
- Bench- Cameron Rupp, Andres Blanco, Cesar Hernandez, Darin Ruf, Jeff Francoeur.
- DL- Cliff Lee (60 Day), Mario Hollands (60 Day), Jonathan Pettibone, Chad Billingsley, Dom Brown.
- 40 Man Roster, inactive- Elvis Araujo, Jesse Biddle, Ethan Martin, Adam Morgan, Hector Neris, Nefi Ogando, Joely Rodriguez, Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco, Aaron Altherr, Jordan Danks, Kelly Dugan.
So, the "news" here is that the Phillies carried eight relievers north, and don't have roster space on the 40 man to add a fifth starter, making it more likely that Dustin McGowan will get the fifth spot than Sean O'Sullivan. Darin Ruf, Andres Blanco, and Cesar Hernandez are probably in the most danger of losing their spots when Dom Brown returns, while clearly one of the eight relievers will go when Chad Billingsley returns. Some predictions, outlook for this team:
- Record- 65-97.
- Last place in the NL East.
- Bottom five in both runs scored and team ERA.
- Ryan Howard leads the team with 21 homers. He also leads the team in RBIs at 82. He hits .214 though, with a sub-.700 OPS. This should mark the end of his Phillies tenure, but that should have happened after last season. He finishes in the bottom three in MLB in WAR.
- Ben Revere leads the team in batting average, until he's traded, hitting around .305 at that point. Odubel Herrera ends the season leading the team at .294. Herrera also is the season-ending leader in stolen bases at 36.
- Dom Brown's "bounce back": .255, 17 homers, 65 RBI's, .740 OPS.
- Two or three position players are traded in-season, including Chase Utley and Ben Revere. Carlos Ruiz and Cody Asche are the other two possibilities.
- Jonathan Papelbon breaks the team record for saves, but is gone by the deadline.
- While he doesn't match last year, Ken Giles has another very solid season.
- Cole Hamels continues to deal like an ace, and is dealt out of town between Memorial Day and the All-Star Break. His combined numbers will be around 3.00 for an ERA, and around 210 innings.
- At least one other starter is dealt, with the favorite going into the season being Chad Billingsley. The only starter favored to finish the season here is David Buchanan.
- MLB Debuts this season will be made by at least two starters this season. Jesse Biddle and Aaron Nola will pitch their way up by September, while Adam Morgan and Joely Rodriguez could make spot starts this season.
- Ruben Amaro is not fired during the season, nor is Ryne Sandberg.
So, I have a pretty bleak outlook. Don't you though? I don't see anyone talking about a surprising season. This is going to be very ugly. My only hope is that my optimistic trade market outlook, moving at least five players this season, plays out.
AAA-Lehigh Valley
- Rotation- Adam Morgan, Joely Rodriguez, Severino Gonzalez, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Sean O'Sullivan.
- Bullpen- Paul Clemens, Phillippe Aumont, Jason Berken, Adam Loewen, Tyler Knigge, Seth Rosin, Colton Murray, Hector Neris.
- Line-Up- Chase d'Arnaud-SS, Russ Canzler-LF, Tommy Joseph-C, Maikel Franco-3B, Brian Bogusevic-RF, Jordan Danks-CF, Tyler Henson-2B, Chris McGuinness-1B.
- Bench- Rene Garcia, Darin Mastroianni, Chris Nelson, Cord Phelps.
Well, this is an interesting squad. The rotation has plenty to watch, as Morgan and Rodriguez are strong candidates for a look in Philadelphia this year, and Severino Gonzalez could be right behind them. The bullpen seems worrisome, and the line-up doesn't have a ton of pop. Basically, watch Danks, Joseph, and of course, Franco. There are six guys on this roster who are on the 40 man, and that's what there is to watch early. I'm sure we'll get a look at some other prospects here as the Summer goes, but such is life in AAA. The good news is that teams packed with prospects don't often times contend in AAA. The bad news is that this team does have a lot of guys new to AAA on this team. I see a team around that .500 mark for the season, eliminated in late Summer.
AA-Reading
- Rotation- Aaron Nola, Jesse Biddle, Ben Lively, Zach Eflin, Tom Windle.
- Line-Up- Roman Quinn-CF, Cameron Perkins-RF, Aaron Altherr-LF, Art Charles-1B, Gustavo Pierre-3B, Carlos Alonso-2B, Gabriel Lino-C, Edgar Duran-SS.
- Bullpen- Elvis Araujo, Nefi Ogando, Mike Nesseth, Ryan O'Sullivan, Ethan Stewart, Stephen Shackleford, Anthony Vasquez.
- Bench- Logan Moore, Harold Martinez, K.C. Serna, Brock Stassi, Brian Pointer.
Well, here's the real action. The bad news for Reading fans is that some of these guys aren't going to make it. The good news is, there are a lot of prospects here. If you assume the rotation to be a strength, and I do, this team will be pretty good this year. The bullpen has some serious "stuff" arms, lead by Ogando. I'm watching Quinn and Altherr the closest, but the line-up actually looks pretty decent, though I'm not 100% sure Lino and Pierre are the starters over Moore and Martinez. I see this team contending for a playoff spot and being fun to watch.
Note: J.P. Crawford begins the season on the disabled list with an oblique injury.
