I'll be the first guy to tell you that I'm not a huge A.J. Burnett fan. Some of it is general 2009 anger (how the hell did our line-up not beat him in Game 2?), and some of it is the general thought that A.J. Burnett annoyed me when he came up with Florida. Let's put those biases aside a moment. Here is the Phillies pitching situation going into Spring Training:
- Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are locks at the top of the rotation.
- Miguel Gonzalez, with 0 IP in his career here, Kyle Kendrick (who's just himself), Roberto Hernandez (the former Fausto Carmona), and Jon Pettibone will compete for three spots in the rotation this Spring.
- Beyond them, Chad Gaudin, Cesar Jimenez, Jeff Manship, Mario Hollands, and Sean O'Sullivan are in camp.
- Adam Morgan is out until after the All-Star Break, and Jesse Biddle didn't show signs of being ready last year.
Ok, so back to Burnett- does that move your opinion? He's certainly a better option than anyone in the last two groups. Let's be honest, he's a much better option than anyone in the second group. If Burnett were on this team, he would easily slot in as the #3 starter. He would improve this team, and probably by a lot, if he pitches anything like he did this past season.
Let's take this another step- #3 start has been the biggest problem of this team in 2012 and 2013. Both years were built around Roy Halladay being a third ace behind Hamels and Lee, and he wasn't just not an ace in either, he was downright bad. With his injuries, the Phillies spent much of 2013 calling Kyle Kendrick a #3, which is just lying to one self. Burnett isn't the same caliber of pitcher that Halladay was pre-2012, but he's a far cry better than the Halladay that threw these past two years, or Kendrick or Joe Blanton. In short, he represents a huge upgrade in a spot that has been a downfall. Baseball Reference lists Burnett as having supplied 3.9 WAR over the past two seasons, while Kendrick was at 2.5, and Hernandez was at -2.1.
I realize that payroll and other concerns come into play, and that's fine. I just don't think that, from a baseball standpoint, it would be bad to sign A.J. Burnett as the new #3 starter in Philadelphia for 2014. If you seriously are hoping for a bounce-back season from the Howards and Rollins of the world, and think the playoffs are possible, this helps you. You don't want your good fortune to be screwed by a putrid staff.
