(Note: this article originally appeared on seventeenrings.wordpress.com)
Analyzing how Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram stack up against the top prospects from the last four drafts
Patrick Causey, on Twitter @pcausey3
I wanted to put some quick thoughts down on where Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram rank relative to other top draft picks in the last four years. This was a good learning exercise for me, as it helped me contextualize how good these players project to be at the next level compared to their contemporaries. I hope it helps you in similar fashion.
Three things to note before getting to the list. First, this list is based on how these prospects were viewed at the time leading up to the draft. I am not using the benefit of hindsight to evaluate them, although I do mix in some commentary about how my evaluations turned out, both good and bad.
Also, many of you will likely take issue with my Joel Embiid ranking; know that I included within that ranking his injury history. It is impossible for me to divorce Embiid from that injury risk given how problematic the navicular bone injury has proven to be with big men.
Finally, two names are missing from this year’s draft class that are considered by many to be top 5 picks: Jamal Murray and Buddy Hield. As I have mentioned on Twitter before, I am not nearly as high on them as prospects. I just don’t think they project as anything more than mid-tier starters/rotation players in the NBA given their athletic profiles. I plan on getting another post up before the draft to explain this in more detail, so make sure to check back tomorrow.
Without further ado, here is the list:
Tier 1: Potential future MVP candidates (i.e. top 5 players):
- Anthony Davis: the standard bearer, the elite of the elite. Anthony Davis was as close to a no brainer we have seen since LeBron James. He projected as a complete two-way player that would eventually challenge for multiple MVP's given his freakish skill for a big man. He has lived up to that billing in every way.
- Ben Simmons: Some have Simmons down in the next tier. Not me. You just don’t find 6’10 players with his vision, passing, and ball handling ability. Coupled with his elite athleticism and rebounding, Simmons is virtually a lock to be a perennial All Star. If he can add a shot (and I think he will), we are looking at a potential MVP candidate.
- Karl-Anthony Towns: I will admit, I was reluctant to rank KAT this high because I did not think he could be as versatile as he was being projected. But he silenced doubters (myself included) by putting together one of the best rookie seasons in NBA history. With the benefit of hindsight, I would rank KAT ahead of Simmons on this list.
Tier 2: Perennial All-Star talent (i.e., 10-15 players):
- Andrew Wiggins: I was very high on Andrew Wiggins coming out of college, grading him out as the best player in the 2014 draft. I projected Wiggins as an elite wing with two-way potential, whose only real question mark was whether he was assertive enough on the offensive side of the ball.
- Joel Embiid: Embiid has all the talent in the world – it’s not often you can compare someone to Hakeem the Dream with a straight face. And if he did not have the fractures in his back and foot, he would have been in Tier 1. But, those are serious injuries that I could not ignore given Embiid’s size.
- D’Angelo Russell: The player I wanted the Sixers to get at #3 in last year's draft. Russell has plus vision and passing ability to go along with a silky smooth three point shot. The only thing holding him back from Tier 1 was his lack of elite athleticism.
- Brandon Ingram: Ingram is a safe choice given his length and shooting ability. He also is an underrated passer and has the chance to be a versatile defender. My biggest concern isn’t his lack of strength, a common criticism levied at him, because I think Ingram has the frame to add more weight. I am more concerned about whether that added weight will help improve his athleticism – he just isn’t as explosive as I would like to see. I think that is what ultimately separates him from some of the other players listed above.
- Jahlil Okafor: I was thrilled the Sixers landed Big Jah, a player who I rated closely to Russell and KAT. His combination of low post moves and elite footwork were enticing. But in hindsight, I understated his defensive concerns, as Okafor was an unmitigated disaster last year. So he likely should have been slotted in Tier 3. But, he still projects as an automatic 20/10 guy, and if he ever becomes a passable defender, he will validate my placement of him in Tier 2.
Tier 3: All-Star talent players (i.e., 15-30ish type guys):
- Kristaps Porzingis: Another projection where I was slightly off. I was intrigued by Porzingis' size/skill/athleticism combination, but thought he had a steep learning curve before he could contribute. And I did not have any problem with the Sixers taking Okafor ahead of Porzingis. But Porzingis has proven me wrong, and likely deserved to be in Tier 2, just ahead of Brandon Ingram.
- Jabari Parker: I was lower on Parker than others, essentially seeing him as a poor-man’s Carmelo Anthony. There’s no doubting Parker’s offensive skill; he always found a way to score. But I was (and still am) concerned about his body type and ability to develop into a two-way player.
Tier 4: High quality starters (i.e., third best player on a team):
- Emmanuel Mudiay: I had a hard time evaluating Mudiay because he played only half of a season in China. But I really liked what I saw, especially when I considered it in conjunction with his high school tape. I projected Mudiay as a better version of Tyreke Evans given that Mudiay is a more natural (and willing) passer.
- Dante Exum: Great point guard prospect, with the size, athleticism and length that I prefer. Truth be told, I actually wanted the Sixers to draft Exum at three ahead of Embiid because I did not think Embiid would ever be healthy. Hopefully I will live to regret that assessment starting next year.
- Justise Winslow: I was higher on Winslow than most and hoped that the Sixers would have traded into the top 10 last year to draft him. I thought Winslow could become a very good two-way wing with plus defensive potential. I am not as bullish on his offensive potential now, but I would still take him on the Sixers in a heartbeat. He is the consummate glue guy that every team needs.
- Kris Dunn: I have struggled placing Dunn on this list. In the moment, I am enthralled by his length, athleticism and competitive edge. I think if he ever develops a consistent jump shot, he is talented enough to be a top 10 point guard in this league. But would I rank him ahead of Mudiay? Probably not. So this seems like a good spot for the Providence product.
- Harrison Barnes/Michael Kidd-Gilchrist/Bradley Beal/Nerlens Noel: I lumped all four of these prospects together because I saw them as being elite one way players (MKG and Noel on defense, Barnes/Beal on offense) that would not be total liabilities on the other end of the floor. In hindsight, I was a little off with all four: I overstated Barnes’ offensive potential, underrated Beal’s offensive potential, did not see MKG developing a consistent jumper like he did, and thought Noel would have progressed further on the offensive side of the ball. Nevertheless, I think they ended up about as good as I expected.
- Aaron Gordon/Marcus Smart/Julius Randle/Dragon Bender: the last grouping within the four tiers. I like all four of these players, especially Aaron Gordon. They each have at least one elite skill (Gordon’s athleticism, Smart’s defense, Randle’s low post scoring/rebounding, Bender’s length and versatility) that will allow them to be good contributors on a championship caliber team. But I don’t think that any of them will ever break into the conversation as All-star players.
There you have it. Let me know your thoughts on this list and how you would rank the players differently.
