On December 9th, 2013, Major League Baseball lost one of the best pitchers the league has ever seen. Roy had an efficient and effective career that was cut short due to injuries. It was a brilliant career that included 203 victories, 8 All-Star Games, 2 Cy Young Awards, 7 top-five Cy Young finishes, a Perfect Game, and a Playoff No-Hitter. He signed a one-day contract with the Blue Jays to retire with the team for whom he played the majority of his professional career. This alone is disappointing to Phillies fans, who wanted nothing more than for him to accomplish what he came here to do, win a World Series.
From 2002-2011, Roy was the best pitcher in baseball. During this time period, he ranked first among all qualifying starters in wins (170), complete games (63), shutouts (18), and WAR (67.2), and ranked second in ERA (2.97). Dave Cameron makes a case for Roy by comparing his top 10-year span to that of Sandy Koufax over at Fangraphs.com. Among active leaders, Roy was ranked 1st in WAR, 10th in ERA, 4th in Wins, 1st in Win Percentage, 8th in WHIP, 4th in Strikeouts, 1st in Shutouts, 1st in Complete Games, and 4th in ERA+. If the Hall of Fame is intended to represent the best among a generation or era of baseball, Roy should be a lock to be elected.
However, as the Hall looks at the fully body of work, Roy’s case is hurt solely based on being cut short by a nagging shoulder injury that he could not overcome. Despite this, he still has an impressive resume. He ranks 34th amongst all pitchers in career WAR (67.7), which is impressive considering there are 69 pitchers in the baseball Hall of Fame. He finished 17th among all pitchers with a minimum of 1000 IP in winning percentage (66%), 12th among all who have pitched at least 10 seasons and 1000 IP. His 3.57 career K/B ranks 16th all-time and his 131 ERA+ ranks 35th all-time, among that same grouping.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the average stats of all Hall of Fame pitchers include 4 All-Star Game Selections (Halladay has 8), 251 Wins (203), 2.96 ERA (3.38), 59% Win Percentage (66%), 2056 Strikeouts (2117), 69 WAR (65.6), 1.91 K/BB (3.57), 4.89 K/9 (6.93), and 42% Win Percentage per Games Pitched (49%). The biggest issue with Roy’s candidacy is the comparative brevity of his career. His 2750 IP would rank him as the 9th fewest among starting pitchers who have been inducted into the Hall of Fame.
However, compared to the recent Hall of Fame inductees, Roy’s numbers hold up and compare reasonably to those of Jim Bunning, Vic Willis, and Don Sutton, with the only major differences between Roy and Bert Blyleven, Steven Carlton, Nolan Ryan, and Phil Niekro being due to longevity, with each having pitched 6-10 more seasons than Roy. There is an argument to be made that ability to be effective for such a long time adds to someone’s value, but Roy’s value in almost half the amount of innings compared to these Hall of Famers should not be overlooked.
Here is a look at his statistics compared to these recent Hall of Fame Inductees:
His comparative dominance over that short period of time should not be forgotten. His career has been brilliant and he deserves to be recognized by the Hall as one of the legends of the game.
