Part Four of a Multi-Part Look at Ruben’s Career as Phillies General Manager. We start to look at the abysmal years of 2012 and 2013, where long-term deals start to turn and the Phillies show they are a team on the decline.
Part One of a Look at Ruben’s General Manager Career with the Phillies can be found here: http://philliesfaithful.com/ruben-amaro-the-good-years-part-1/
Part Two of a Look at Ruben’s General Manager Career with the Phillies can be found here: http://philliesfaithful.com/ruben-amaro-the-good-years-part-2/
Part Three of a Look at Ruben’s General Manager Career with the Phillies can be found here: http://philliesfaithful.com/ruben-amaro-bad-years-part-1/
The Worst Year Yet – 2013 (-$118.5M and -3.6 WAR)
Knowing that his team was almost entirely returning in 2013 and having very little payroll flexibility to augment the staff, Ruben made very few moves in the offseason prior to 2013 and allowed the moves that he had previously made to play out the life of their arrangements. Aside from those transactions, the other decisions were fairly minor, as Ruben tried to find cheap roster fillers or reclamation projects. With the exception of carry-over from contracts given to Lee and Hamels and positive return on players given up previously having bad years, none of the decisions that Amaro made in 2013 returned positive value. Of the 8 major decisions made by Amaro in 2013 that impacted the 2013 season, they cost the Phillies $36.5M and cost the team -3.8 WAR, returning only negative value. I do not know how I can emphasize that anymore and wonder how he is still the General Manager. He did not make a single decision that positively impacted the team.
Here is a look at the incredible roster moves made by Amaro in the 2013 season:
Reclamation Projects
In baseball, finding a competitive advantage is incredibly difficult. You need to scout well and identify players poised for improvement or a return to former glory. Amaro attempted to buy-low on a few players who had down years or were returning from injury. This was the model used to put together the 2013 roster, including even the decision to keep many of the major leaguers returning from the 2012 team. Among the former stars that Amaro decided to bring in were Michael Young (Rangers Depth), Mike Adams (Injury Recovery), Delmon Young (Injury Recovery), and John Lannan (Injury Recovery). One of the major concerns with these types of decisions is that these players have even higher risk of re-injury and lost time. All three of the injured players spent significant time on the Disabled List, which could have impacted their ability to get into a rhythm and find success.
The Performances
Michael Young had a decent year hitting .276 with a .336 OBP and below-average .395 OPS, though he continued to be a defensive liability and a Third-Baseman in only title. Mike Adams pitched a career low 25 innings and established career highs in BB/9 (3.96), ERA (3.96), FIP (5.25), and a career-low value at -.4 WAR. He had surgery in August and will likely be pushing a spring training return. John Lannan was brought in to complete the rotation, despite only being worth a 4 WAR in his career (as a point of reference, Cliff Lee was worth 5.2 WAR last year alone). In 14 starts, Lannan had a 3-6 record with a 5.33 ERA, 4.6 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9. He was worth .3 WAR based solely on the fact that he pitched in 74 innings. This brings us to Delmon Young, who was a notoriously poor clubhouse guy, on the decline, who no one wanted to even offer a minor league contract to. However, he was a right-handed hitting Outfielder, who used to once have power or promise of power. I’m not entirely sure which at this point, as he has only eclipsed 20 HRs once in his career. Delmon hit .260 with 8 HRs for the Phillies in 2013, complimenting that with a .307 OPS and career low .397 OPS. On top of that, he played very poor defense and walked only 4.8% of the time, while striking out 23.7% of the time. How did we not find success with these players being added to an already aging, oft-injured roster?
The Scapegoat
When a time declines as quickly as the Phillies have over the years, someone has to be given the blame. Ruben will neither blame nor fire himself, so, instead, the Phillies fired the most successful coach in Phillies history, Charlie Manuel. While I do not disagree that this was the right decision at the time, as the team had become stagnant and Charlie appeared to have lost both control and attention within the clubhouse, it really was not entirely his fault. Ruben has put this team together, committing years and millions to aging players, refusing to say goodbye to the hardly anyone. The players he has decided to let leave (Jayson Werth, Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, etc.) have found incredible success after leaving the organization. Did those players struggle under Charlie’s guidance? It is possible, so maybe he does need more of the blame than I am willing to give, but the architect of the team cannot possibly escape this debacle with little to no accountability or ramifications. In the meantime, we will see what Ryne Sandberg can do with this declining roster.
The Contracts
Looking toward the future, Ruben did actually make two savvy moves, in my opinion, which did not impact the 2013 team. He signed Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez for a 3 year, $12M contract, which was well below the rumored going price for the Cuban pitcher. There is little doubt that Gonzalez is a major leaguer, and even if he becomes only a Relief Pitcher, that is a fair value for a right-handed, power arm. He also extended Chase Utley to a 2 Year, $27M contract, with multiple options based on games played. I have provided significant detail in a previous piece on the value of Chase Utley, even if he will likely only play 120 games a season for the remainder of his career. That being said, it does perpetuate the issue of the organization of never infusing young blood into the organization and continuing to utilize the same lineup year after year. However, Utley is not the route of the problem, but just a symbol of the lack of change.
Summary
The Phillies are at a turning point coming into the 2014 season. Two straight years of trying to supplement the core of Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, Howard, Hamels, Lee, and Halladay with experienced veterans, high-priced free agents, or cheap reclamation projects have proved to be feeble at best. The Phillies need consider legitimate changes to the team, including trading some of their core and infusing youth into the roster. The Phillies have a chance to add an impact prospect in the 2014 draft at a position of need, but that is about the only positive from the 2013 season. This was a clearly lost season and should serve as a reminder of the poor decision-making that needs to change for the Phillies to find success again.
