Finally on July 23 the first major trade has occurred. The Oakland Athletics sent starting pitcher Scott Kazmir to the Houston Astros in exchange for prospects Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham. The deal will affect the Phillies in their pursuit to cash in their Cole Hamels asset for players that will be part of the team's future, as the bar is starting to be set for pitchers.
Scott Kazmir, of course, is a lesser pitcher than Cole Hamels. While Kazmir has pitched very well in recent years, the middle years of Kazmir's career puts him a tick below Hamels. While Kazmir was an All-Star in 2008 and helped the Rays get to the World Series, Kazmir became a 5.00 ERA pitcher before succumbing to injuries that caused him not to miss 2012. Kazmir re-established himself with Cleveland in 2013 and he signed a two-year contract with the Athletics before 2014. Kazmir will be a free agent after this season.
Hamels should have more value than Kazmir, because he will remain under the acquiring club's control for three seasons after this one. Teams such as the Dodgers, who could lose Zack Greinke after this season, might want to have the safety net of a long-term player. Boston likely has fallen out of contention in 2015 but they may wish to acquire Hamels as a piece for the future while the opportunity is there. The Rangers could trade free-agent-to-be Yovani Gallardo and replace him with the controllable Hamels.
With the idea that Hamels would be worth a bit more in trade, the prospects in the trade might give some insight into what the Phillies might expect.
Mengden was a fourth round draft pick of the Astros in 2014 and was at Class A Quad Cities at the time of the trade. Mengden is a pitching prospect who has four different pitches and likely projects to be a Major League starter. In May, MLB.com ranked Mengden at 22 on the team's list of top prospects.
Nottingham is a catcher was a sixth round draft pick of the Astros in 2013. Nottingham has been hitting very well in low A, which is a good sign. A piece on Chron.com last month suggested he could be the Astros catcher in 2017. SB Nation ranked Nottingham in the top 75 prospects in baseball at midseason. But, Nottingham was not even in the Astros' top 20 before the season began.
So, the Astros gave up a player who did not even crack the Astros top 20, and another who only recently started to creep up the list and into the Astros top 10. In other words, the Astros did not give up a whole lot for the rental Kazmir. It probably means that the Phillies would be lucky to get a couple top 10 prospects in an organization who are probably not among the top prospects.
With prospects valued so highly in 2015, that is why the Phillies may still have Cole Hamels at the end of next week.