The 2016 season is just about to begin. The 2015 Phillies finished the season with the worst record in baseball. Could the Phillies improve upon the record in 2016? Perhaps a little bit, but the primary goal in 2016 is player development. While the record may reflect more losses than wins, the potential is there for 2016 to be enjoyable Phillies baseball.
What we Have Covered So Far:
Our fine staff have written several specific pieces leading up to today's overall preview. Check them out here:
The Starting Lineup
by Brandon Apter
The Bench
by Somers Price
Starting Rotation
by Tim Kelly
The Bullpen
by Kevin Reavy
Projected Lineup:
Predicting the Phillies Opening Day lineup will be a little difficult. The Phillies currently lack power in the lineup, beyond Maikel Franco and
- Cesar Hernandez, 2B
- Odubel Herrera, CF
- Maikel Franco, 3B
- Ryan Howard/Darin Ruf, 1B
- Cameron Rupp, C
- Cedric Hunter, LF
- Freddy Galvis, SS
- Peter Bourjos, RF
- Pitcher's spot
Another possibility involves Bourjos or Hunter batting higher, perhaps in the two-hole. That would allow Herrera to bat third, Franco fourth, and Howard/Ruf fifth. It is not ideal, but that would give the Phillies a number three hitter ahead of the Franco and Howard power to drive in. Hernandez has been getting on base and could lead off.
Bench:
- Ryan Howard/Darin Ruf (whoever is not starting)
- Manny Burriss, IF/OF
- Andres Blanco, IF
- Tyler Goeddel, OF
- Carlos Ruiz, C
Howard and Ruf combining for one position created the necessity to carry Manny Burriss over the likes of Will Venable or David Lough. Burriss will see time all over the diamond, though he has mostly been an infielder in his professional career. Since Cody Asche is injured and Darnell Sweeney could not show he was ready for a big league roster, he will work on his skill at AAA. Ruf can serve as an emergency option in the outfield, if need be, though he spent all of his time at Spring Training at first base.
Starting Rotation:
- Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
- Aaron Nola, RHP
- Charlie Morton, RHP
- Jerad Eickhoff, RHP
- Vince Velasquez, RHP
The Phillies open the season without a left-handed starter in the rotation. With the likes of Cole Hamels and Randy Wolf as long-term mainstays in the starting rotation, and the likes of Terry Mulholland before that, the Phillies have not opened the season without a left-handed pitcher in the starting rotation in recent memory.
Even without a left-handed pitcher, this rotation will be much more stable than 2015. Without the likes of Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams, Chad Billingsley, Kevin Correia, Sean O'Sullivan, David Buchanan, Alec Asher, and Severino Gonzalez, this group should go much deeper into games, and mercifully be much kinder to the bullpen.
Bullpen
- David Hernandez, RHP (CL?)
- Dailer Hinojosa, RHP
- Hector Neris, RHP
- Jeanmar Gomez, RHP
- Brett Oberholtzer, LHP
- Daniel Stumpf, RHP
- James Russell, LHP
This bullpen is worrisome because there are not clearly defined roles. See below for further assessment, but there is potential here for disaster. I except Brett Oberholtzer to be most reliable arm in the 'pen, starting out as the team's long man but helping further along in games as the season goes on.
Potential Breakout Performers
Maikel Franco
This year appears to be the breakout year for the young Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco. Former Phillies manager and hitting guru Charlie Manuel said that he sees Franco hitting 30 home runs. That is a rare feat in the post-steroid era. After hitting nine total throughout Spring Training, that pace would certainly exceed 30 throughout six months of play.
The big question for Franco will be how well he makes adjustments to pitchers who have adjusted to him. In the past, talented players like Domonic Brown have failed to do so, and therefore live up to their potential. The scouting reports are out on Franco, and every pitcher facing him will know what pitches he hits best and simply will not throw them.
If Franco adequately could make adjustments, expect him to be this year's breakout performer.
Cesar Hernandez
For the first time since 2005, the second base position does not outrightly belong to Chase Utley. That means that Cesar Hernandez will finally get an opportunity to start at his true position, second base. The Phillies threw Hernandez into center field in 2013, and despite learning the position on the fly, still hit .289 and put forth a .344 on base percentage, mostly serving as the team's leadoff hitter down the stretch after a season-ending injury to Ben Revere.
Now in 2016, Utley is gone, and Hernandez will enter the season as the Opening Day second baseman for the Phillies. He just may be the leadoff hitter, too. Firmly implanted at second base and with shortstop, center field, and third base behind him, Hernandez can keep his focus on his bat.
Vince Velasquez
Another player with a new opportunity is starter Vince Velasquez. Velasquez made just seven starts for the Houston Astros last season, with plenty of bullpen appearances around the starts. For the first time, Velasquez will be able to be confident that he will show up to the ballpark every fifth day ready to pitch and can properly prepare to do so.
Velasquez throws in the high 90's. If Velasquez can balance the heat with some off-speed change ups, he has the potential to make hitters look silly. Velasquez will also seek to be more efficient with his pitches and last deeper into games. If he can do so, expect big things for Velasquez.
Potential Letdowns
Aaron Nola
The Phillies never really appointed Aaron Nola as their next ace, but the hype of fans turned him into one. Nola projects to be a very solid Major League pitcher. But, appointing him an ace in his first full season would be a bit much. That is why the Phillies wisely are sending veteran Jeremy Hellickson to the mound Opening Day instead.
Should Nola go 10-12 with a 4.50 earned run average, would fans feel let down? What if he is 11-11 and 4.00? Neither are overwhelming. Nola could have some very good starts, but at the same time there is potential for some growing pains down the line. Thus, with expectations that are too high already, fans may find themselves disappointed in Nola's performance.
Peter Bourjos
Bourjos was a really nice player back with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 2013, which led to a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for third baseman David Freese. Bourjos struggled to hit in 2014 and 2015, batting just .231 and .200, respectively. In Spring Training action, Bourjos has hit well and played solid defense for the Phillies. The Phillies hope Bourjos will be a solid player in 2016 for the Phillies, and then serve as potential trade bait down the line.
But, 2014 and 2015 are hard to ignore. If Bourjos follows 2014 and 2015, consider him a bust.
The Phillies Bullpen
This is probably the easiest one on the list. The Phillies do not have a set closer. This spells disaster. One thing relievers frequently talk about is enjoying getting into a groove where they know their role. In 2008, the Phillies had it pretty standard: J.C. Romero would pitch the seventh inning, Ryan Madson would pitch the eighth inning, and Brad Lidge would come in to close. Scott Eyre got a lefty or two out beforehand and Clay Condrey would pitch outs against righties prior to the seventh inning.
The Phillies right now have zero idea who is in what role. Probably due to a 40-man roster crunch, the Phillies will have Ernesto Frieri, Edward Mujica, and Andrew Bailey all at AAA Lehigh Valley as potential reinforcements. The Phillies will have to tolerate growing pains from Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf and Hector Neris has been inconsistent this Spring. If either falter badly, there many be many arms up and down this season, as Luis Garcia and Elvis Araujo are readily available for trips back and forth the Blue Route.
Team MVP Candidate
Maikel Franco
I think this is something that Franco could run away with in 2016. The reason is that he does not have a whole lot of competition and the award often goes to an offensive performer. As we said above, there are high hopes for Franco, and he appears ready to serve as the team's Most Valuable Player.
It's easy to dream about Franco in a lineup with the Future Phillies roster we saw the last couple days. Imagine the Thursday Futures Game lineup with Franco in it. Roman Quinn leading off, J.P. Crawford batting second, Franco third, Nick Williams fourth, perhaps Jorge Alfaro fifth. Franco may have team MVP competition soon, but for now, Franco will have to be the primary offensive force for the Phillies.
Record Prediction
What record the Phillies have in 2016 is only relevant in terms of where they will draft. Looking around the league, I think that the Cincinnati Reds are the worst team in baseball. The Atlanta Braves also could be pretty bad in 2016. In other words, the Phillies may not be bad enough for the top pick in the draft, but they very well could be the towards the top of the draft order. That does not necessarily mean a failure; if the Phillies young players continue to develop in the minors, some of the players among Herrera, Nola, and Franco continue to develop, the year should be considered an outright success.
In terms of wins and losses: it is simply too soon to tell. A lot depends on how long the Phillies have Hellickson and Morton around; if either are flipped at the trade deadline then younger players will come up and may have their growing pains. The Phillies enter 2016 with a starting rotation much more steady than 2015 and a bullpen that no longer has Ken Giles and Jonathan Papelbon to at least preserve some wins.
Final Word
Enjoy the games. That is my final word for the 2016 Phillies. Enjoy the last chance you'll have with Ryan Howard as a Phillie. Enjoy chanting "Chooooch" one last season. Have a blast watching Maikel Franco and Aaron Nola develop. Enjoy the outfield defense and the infield defense, too.
Go to the games. Enjoy the atmosphere, the crab fries, the craft beer, the lower ticket prices on Stub Hub.
The team will be fun to watch in 2016, but we cannot expect a large amount of wins and losses. Even a 90-loss team still wins 72 games. This will be a fun team to watch, win or lose.
