While we all know this season will have us likely sitting in the cellar of the NL East, baseball is upon us and it's great. The crack of the bat, the summer beer at the ballpark…no matter how bad you're team may be, this is a good time.
This season is going to be rough. Let's get that out of the way. That's a given. With Howard, Utley and Papelbon still in the mix, the team is not in a true rebuild quite yet, but they're in more of a transitioning into a rebuild period.
Anyone who watches the Sixers lose from the outside just think that they suck…and they do. But, those who watch them every night see how hard they play and how hard they fight. The Phillies need to grasp the attitude that the Sixers have because every one on the team is fighting for a job. No one is safe, everyone is available. If I see the Phillies lose, but they are doing a good job at the fundamentals, small ball, showing promise – this season will be much more bearable to watch.
Here are some reasonable expectations for the Phillies this season:
Ryan Howard - By far one of the most controversial pieces heading into 2015 is the Big Piece. Howard hit just .176 (13-for-74) with three doubles, three homers, 10 RBI's, six walks and 23 strikeouts. Though Ryan has changed his stance at the plate, he still hasn't adjusted to avoid the outside breaking ball. Pitchers have made adjustments to get him out for years now and he hasn't been able to adjust to be effective. This year, I would expect Howard to hit .240 with 25 home runs and 90+ RBI's. I wouldn't be surprised if his strikeout numbers lead the league.
Chase Utley - Chase had a very nice spring, hitting .412 with four homers and 11 RBI's. He struck out just five times in 34 at-bats. While many would like to see Utley finish his career out in a Phillies uniform, if he carries over his hot play from the spring, he will be a very attractive option on the market if a trade meets his liking. Hopefully Chase's defense picks up a bit this year as he seemed to struggle with even some routine plays last season. This year, a realistic expectation for Chase is an average in the .270's, maybe the low .280's. In terms of homers, I think Utley goes deep between 10-15 times and drives in 70-80 runs.
Cody Asche - If Maikel Franco begins the season hot in Triple-A, Asche will have to match that with improvement at the big league level. Back stiffness kept him out of some games this spring and his glove at the hot corner still leaves a lot to be desired. The Phillies starting third baseman hit .232 in the spring, but showed off some power with three homers and 11 RBI's. He needs to be better both offensively and defensively to solidify a spot in this teams' future. In order for him to do that, I think hitting .260 would suffice in his second full-time season with 8-10 home runs and an RBI number between 40-60.
Freddy Galvis - The Phillies new starting shortstop surprised folks in the spring with his offense, hitting .278 with two homers and seven RBI's. After hanging out last season around the Mendoza line, Galvis needs to prove that he can hit big league pitching consistently. His defense will be just fine in my opinion. At the plate, I think Galvis and Asche need to put up similar numbers. Though .260 would be nice, I envision Freddy landing more in the .240 and .250 range with single digit home runs.
Ben Revere - A move to left field may make Revere's defense more tolerable. Hopefully this offseason, he worked on his arm strength and route running, because he's going to need to show us something this season to make the Phillies feel comfortable with him moving forward. While many fans would like Revere to be a lead-off guy that hits for power, he simply isn't going to do that. He is a slap hitter and will continue to do that this season. As long as he gets on base and cuts down his strikeouts, I think he'll do fine. I do expect another season of him hitting around .300 with 40+ steals. Hopefully Revere and Herrera can create some havoc on the basepaths at the top of the lineup this season.
Odubel Herrera - While Herrera was impressive in the spring, hitting .343 while stealing seven bases without getting caught, he is the biggest unknown heading into the season. Having not played on the big league stage during the regular season at all, he will be tested. I'm not as concerned about him offensively as I am with him on defense as he showed some poor judgement in center throughout spring training. Obviously, him and Ben Revere getting on base is the biggest recipe for success. Once they get there, the speed will take care of the rest. I think them getting on base will make life easier for Utley and Howard, so they don't feel pressured to have to provide the only offense. While I'd love to say Herrera will hit .300, I think the young Rule-5 pick could realistically hit in the .280's. If he gets on base a lot, I would expect him to be right up with Revere in terms of steals, between 30-40.
Domonic Brown - Though I know he isn't going to be the starting right fielder, the Phillies have said he could return as early as April 11th. This season is a huge one for Brown because the organization is giving him every chance to keep his job in right field. He can no longer live off of May 2013, his 12 homer month. He needs to be better defensively too. Though we've seen Dom misread some balls, his arm is very strong for a corner outfielder and if his offense improves, I think his defensive confidence will get better too. I think a good season for Brown would have him hitting in the .280's, but realistically I think he'll be in the high .260's. I'd expect his home run number to be similar to Utley's, but I wouldn't be surprised if he hits 20.
Cole Hamels - If Hamels stays on the team the entire season, it will be interesting to see how his work is effected by the play of the team. If the Phils fail to compete, I wonder if Hamels will regress at all due to lost motivation. Sounds doubtful as I expect the Phillies ace to have another great season in hopes of getting dealt to a contender. With the team behind him, I still see Hamels getting 10-12 wins and posting an ERA in the mid two's.
Aaron Harang - Harang keeping the team in the game and eating innings is his purpose. I see the veteran right-hander getting anywhere from 5-8 wins and having an ERA in the high three's or low four's. Hopefully his back issues aren't an issue and he pitches well enough to flip him to a contender before the trade deadline.
Jerome Williams - The Phillies projected number four starter, Williams had an awful spring. While he looked solid for the team last year when he came on board, I don't expect his luck to hold up this year. Realistically, I think Williams doesn't win five games and has an ERA in the high four's or low five's.
David Buchanan - The youngest arm in the Phillies rotation really turned some heads this spring. In 21 innings, Buchanan surrendered just three runs, good for an ERA of 1.29. The second year right-hander has shown the ability to get guys out through the strikeout as well, posting 15 of them this spring. He isn't really well known for his arsenal of pitches, but Buchanan showed that he can have an effective curve ball and hit his spots with the fastball. While I don't expect his success from the spring to carry over completely, I think Buchanan could earn himself eight wins and post an ERA in the low to mid three's.
Jonathan Papelbon - The Phillies closer, up until his second to last outing of the spring, was one of the bright spots in Grapefruit League action. Papelbon didn't allow a run in seven out of his nine appearances, striking out seven while walking just two in 8 1/3 innings of work. If he sticks with the Phils all year, I expect a save number in the 30's despite the teams' likely inability to score runs consistently.
Ken Giles - The spring wasn't to kind to Mr. 100 mile Giles and hopefully that changes as we flip the switch to the regular season. His velocity was down and his command was spotty at best as a mild back strain set him back towards the end of the Grapefruit League schedule. I think confidence is a big part of Giles' success, so I'd imagine once he gets under the big league lights withe the adrenaline pumping and back into a groove, he will be just fine. I'd love to see a high one or low two's ERA for Giles in year two of his career.
Jake Diekman - His control really concerns me as it did for the majority of last year, despite his success. Though I think he should be used more as a left-handed specialist than a set-up guy, that isn't the case. Diekman showed signs of promise during the spring, but needs to do more to be a big part of the Phillies young bullpen moving forward. Ideally, I'd like to see him around a 2.50 ERA, but I think somewhere in the low to mid three's is a more realistic expectation.
Brandon Apter is the Publishing Editor of Philliedelphia.com. Follow him on Twitter @ApterShock
