In a relatively surprising move, as my colleague Mike has already outlined, the Phillies have brought back former Phillies top prospect turned journeyman Outfielder, Marlon Byrd. On the surface level, this move wreaks of desperation, overvaluing, and making decisions at the surface level. The Phillies come into the offseason having a very specific wish list. Among the most desired needs was a right-handed hitting OF with power and above average defense. On paper, Marlon fills all of those needs, coming off a career year where he hit .291/.336/.511 with 24 HRs, which was good for a 138 OPS+ and 136 wRC+. His 138 OPS+ and 136 wRC+ were 20th and 21st respectively among all hitters in 2013 and 7th among all OFs. This might seem like buying-high on a 36-year old player after a career year, but the contract is fairly reasonable compared to his career and annual values, both in terms of offense and defense.
While I do not love this deal, I think it is fair value for what Marlon Byrd offers and is relatively low risk with low reward, with an outside chance that Marlon can repeat his career numbers in one of the two seasons for which he is signed. Generally speaking, Marlon has been worth between 1.6 and 2.25 WAR on average, with peaks of 4.1 WAR in single seasons. His rolling average is declining, but his peak season in 2013 provides optimism that he is not fully declining. 2012 was entirely a lost season for him, but cannot be ignored. Excluding that season, his numbers would actually be much better. From a conservative perspective though, assuming he will perform around his low-to-mid-level historical average, Marlon should be worth between $15-18M over his two year contract. There are obviously concerns over his age and his recent average trend that he will not meet that expectation, but his contract is reasonably fair value for his performance and likely even for the market.
In my mind, the best way to determine the value of a contract is to consider the alternatives, or opportunity cost. The Phillies were specifically tied to having interest in Marlon Byrd, Michael Morse, Carlos Beltran, and Nelson Cruz. Those of you who listened to our Podcast last week should know that I wanted the Phillies to sign Carlos Beltran to a deal in the range of 2 Years, $22-24M. From a return on investment perspective, these deals are fairly comparable, but based on Beltran’s historical average performance and value; I still think he was the best option for them. The Phillies went the cheaper route, which narrowed their true considerations to Byrd, Morse, and Cruz. I think it is reasonable to anticipate that these three players will wind up signing similar contracts. Based on recent trends as well as historical averages, Byrd has been the highest performer as well as more consistent performer. By comparison, Morse has been worth a combined 2.5 WAR over the last seven years, averaging .5 WAR over the last three. Cruz has been worth 13.3 WAR over that same span of time, averaging 1.3 WAR over the last three seasons. Based on those figures, I would be hesitant to offer Morse more than $1.5M a year for a very low impact player and Cruz no more than $5-6M a year for a bat-only outfielder. Byrd, on the other hand, is lower risk because of his defensive ability as well as his hitting potential. His combined 15.7 WAR over the last seven years and 1.63 WAR over the last three exceeded that of the alternative options.
The last consideration I want to emphasize is the need for improved defense from the outfield. Marlon was among the best right-handed hitting options in this regard on the market in 2013. Among players with at least 200 IP in the field, Marlon Byrd ranked 64th in defensive value with a positive 2.8 UZR/150. By comparison, our platoon right fielders last year were significantly worse last year. Delmon Young had a -22.2 UZR/150 across 500 innings (157th), John Mayberry had a -12.6 UZR/150 in 810 innings (132nd), and Darin Ruf was worth -26.9 and ranked 167th. The Phillies had also been previously tied to free agents Mike Morse, Carlos Beltran, and Nelson Cruz. Mike Morse had a -26.3 UZR/150 across 580 innings (166th), Beltran had a -18.7 UZR/150 across 1140 innings (149th), and Cruz had a -6.5 UZR/150 in 906 innings (105th). Marlon was by far the best defensive outfielder among the players the Phillies were considering. We have finally put an emphasis on defense, which was severely needed, as Marlon will be joining a starting Outfield that currently boasts the likes of Domonic Brown and his -12.6 UZR/150 in 1140 innings in 2013 (131st) and Ben Revere with a -3.6 UZR/150 in 708 innings in 2013 (93rd).
I want to emphasize that I am not trying to say that I love and praise the signing of Marlon Byrd, in fact, I was quite the opposite when I first saw announcement. However, looking closer at the numbers, Marlon is a fairly decent fit for the Phillies needs as well as good value and should be a fairly neutral return on investment for the organization. He plays decent defense in right-field as well as providing flexibility to play center-field. He is a right-handed hitter with some power, who has excellent career numbers against left-handed pitchers, something the Phillies desperately need. (He has a career line of .291/.343/.461, .804 OPS, .170 ISO, 111 wRC+, and 7% BB% against lefties.) He also provides consistency to the RF position, removing the exposure and negative WAR we received from the likes of Mayberry, Young, and others that have played the position since Werth left. Finally, Cruz and Beltran both received qualifying offers, so for a Phillies team that is looking to improve its youth and farm system, they did not have to give up a draft pick as compensation, which adds a good bit of value to this deal to me.
