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| Nola's final start, in Trenton. |
Like most Phillies fans, I'm excited by Aaron Nola's potential. He was a very plus arm in the college ranks, being the SEC Pitcher of the Year twice in his career at LSU. After we made him the #7 overall pick in the 2014 draft, he didn't disappoint either, dominating the Clearwater ranks, and then having solid success in Reading. This has lead some to speculate that Nola could be an option for 2015 in Philadelphia's rotation, a rotation that needs at a minimum, one arm from somewhere. I sincerely hope the front office isn't buying into this strange line of thinking.
Nola progressed nicely, but he reached exactly where he belonged in Reading. While his traditional stat-line read pretty decent (2-0, 2.63 ERA, 5 GS, 24 innings), dig a little deeper and you see a pitcher who was being challenged. He struck out just 15 in his 24 innings, a fine number at a higher level, but not dominant for Reading. His five walks were fine, but that comes out to just a 3:1 ration in K's/BB's. Compare that to his 30-5 split over 31.1 innings in Clearwater. His opponent batting average went from .207 in A+ to .269 in AA. His WHIP from 0.93 to 1.25. His BABIP from .244 to .284. Hitters in AA squared him up much nicer. Perhaps the most telling stat of all though is that Nola stranded 94.3% of base runners in AA. MLB average is in the 70-72% range, and he had a 72.7% rate in Clearwater. Yes, Nola was timely with some big pitches, but he was also somewhat lucky. With such low strikeout numbers, he should not have been able to strand so many runners while having a BABIP so close to normal.
I still have high hopes for Nola, and think he could arrive in Philadelphia in 2015. My preference is that he starts the year and spends a month or two in Reading, but I'd be fine with him being challenged in AAA ball next year if that's their plan. Putting him in Philadelphia before he's nearly ready to be there isn't a smart idea though. Yes, it's tempting with the team losing like this, but the Phillies should be smarter than this.
