The Eagles are not getting Marcus Mariota: A Look at the Eagles QB Situation, Part 1

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The quarterback position is going to hang around the Eagles offseason like an anvil. Most people believe that the Eagles lack a true franchise caliber quarterback. These same individuals are concerned that the Eagles are in the proverbial no man’s land – too good to land a top quarterback prospect, but too bad to challenge for a Super Bowl with their current options.

In this three part series I analyze whether the Eagles quarterback situation is as dire as it seems. Part 1 focuses on whether the Eagles can realistically get Marcus Mariota. Part 2 looks at Mark Sanchez and quarterbacks outside of the Eagles organization. Part 3 will focus on Nick Foles. Let’s get right to it.

Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota is the latest jewel in the eyes of Eagles fans. He’s mobile, athletic, put up gaudy numbers in college, and oh yea, did you know he played under Chip Kelly? Adding fuel to the speculation, Chip Kelly recently declared that he has an even bigger man-crush on Mariota than the rest of Philadelphia, saying Mariota was “the most talented kid that I coached in college.”

And now that Kelly has full control over player personnel, there is a growing segment of Eagles fans who think trading up to get Mariota is a realistic possibility.

And then it happened: speaking to 97.5 the Fanatic, Trent Dilfer darn near broke the internet in Philadelphia when he said that it's a possibility that Mariota drops because he is not "pro ready." Now, I respect Dilfer's opinion on quarterbacks as much as the next guy. But it should be noted that Dilfer has not studied all of Mariota's tape, so his opinion could change.

But let's assume for a moment that Dilfer is right and Mariota drops. I hate to be a Debbie downer, but I still do not think it is either realistic or smart given the associated cost.

For context, below is the NFL Trade Value Chart. It was popularized by Jimmy Johnson back in the 1990s, and has been used as a blueprint for most NFL teams for making draft day trades.

Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4		Round 5		Round 6		Round 7
1	3,000	33	580	65	265	97	112	129	43	161	27	193	14.2
2	2,600	34	560	66	260	98	108	130	42	162	26.6	194	13.8
3	2,200	35	550	67	255	99	104	131	41	163	26.2	195	13.4
4	1,800	36	540	68	250	100	100	132	40	164	25.8	196	13
5	1,700	37	530	69	245	101	96	133	39.5	165	25.4	197	12.6
6	1,600	38	520	70	240	102	92	134	39	166	25	198	12.2
7	1,500	39	510	71	235	103	88	135	38.5	167	24.6	199	11.8
8	1,400	40	500	72	230	104	86	136	38	168	24.2	200	11.4
9	1,350	41	490	73	225	105	84	137	37.5	169	23.8	201	11
10	1,300	42	480	74	220	106	82	138	37	170	23.4	202	10.6
11	1,250	43	470	75	215	107	80	139	36.5	171	23	203	10.2
12	1,200	44	460	76	210	108	78	140	36	172	22.6	204	9.8
13	1,150	45	450	77	205	109	76	141	35.5	173	22.2	205	9.4
14	1,100	46	440	78	200	110	74	142	35	174	21.8	206	9
15	1,050	47	430	79	195	111	72	143	34.5	175	21.4	207	8.6
16	1,000	48	420	80	190	112	70	144	34	176	21	208	8.2
17	950	49	410	81	185	113	68	145	33.5	177	20.6	209	7.8
18	900	50	400	82	180	114	66	146	33	178	20.2	210	7.4
19	875	51	390	83	175	115	64	147	32.6	179	19.8	211	7
20	850	52	380	84	170	116	62	148	32.2	180	19.4	212	6.6
21	800	53	370	85	165	117	60	149	31.8	181	19	213	6.2
22	780	54	360	86	160	118	58	150	31.4	182	18.6	214	5.8
23	760	55	350	87	155	119	56	151	31	183	18.2	215	5.4
24	740	56	340	88	150	120	54	152	30.6	184	17.8	216	5
25	720	57	330	89	145	121	52	153	30.2	185	17.4	217	4.6
26	700	58	320	90	140	122	50	154	29.8	186	17	218	4.2
27	680	59	310	91	136	123	49	155	29.4	187	16.6	219	3.8
28	660	60	300	92	132	124	48	156	29	188	16.2	220	3.4
29	640	61	292	93	128	125	47	157	28.6	189	15.8	221	3
30	620	62	284	94	124	126	46	158	28.2	190	15.4	222	2.6
31	600	63	276	95	120	127	45	159	27.8	191	15	223	2.3
32	590	64	270	96	116	128	44	160	27.4	192	14.6	224	2

For those unfamiliar with the chart, it is really quite simple. It assigns values to every pick in every round of the draft so that teams can properly gauge how much each pick is worth when discussing trades. So if you want to make a trade to either move up or down the draft, this chart provides you an approximation of the type of value you should seek in return.

The Eagles are picking 20th this year and have 8 picks in the upcoming draft: a draft pick in each round, plus the Buffalo Bills 4th round pick as a result of the Bryce Brown trade.

If the Eagles traded their entire draft board, all 8 picks, they could move up from 20th to………. the 7th overall pick held by the Chicago Bears. (The 8 picks amount to 1,584.2 points, while the 7th pick overall is worth 1,500). So even if Mariota drops, we would have to pull off a Ricky Williams or Herschel Walker type trade just to be in the conversation, and that is not even considering how bad those trades turned out for the Vikings and Saints, respectively.

Which leaves us one other option: mortgaging the future by replicating the ill-fated Washington Redskins/St. Louis Rams trade for RGIII. If you recall, Washington gave up 3 first round picks and a 2nd rounder to move up just four spots, from 6th overall to 2nd. If it cost that much just to move up four spots, how much do you think the Eagles will have to give to move up 15 spots or so?

In other words, while you are going to hear a lot about whether the Eagles will trade for Mariota, I do not see how this is a realistic option.

But let’s assume for a moment that a trade is somehow possible. Does it even make sense given where the Eagles are situated? The Eagles have come off consecutive 10-6 seasons. They have a roster filled with a good combination of veterans and young emerging talent. But they have a couple of holes that simply must be addressed if they are going to advance to the next level. We have one competent player in the secondary in Malcom Jenkins. The offensive line has three players (Jason Peters, Evan Mathis and Todd Herramens) that are 32 or older. Do we really want to mortgage the future by trading multiple first round draft picks for the off chance that Mariota pans out? I don't. And I think Mariota is a great prospect. It is just too much of a risk for a team that is only a few pieces away from being among the NFL’s elite.