We are breaking down the Eagles quarterback situation into a three part series. In Part I, I addressed the growing sentiment among Eagles Nation that obtaining Marcus Mariota is both realistic and wise. Check it out here.
If you want to get through that article like I did my high school English class, here’s the cliff notes version: it is not. The end.
Part II focuses on whether there are any external options for the quarterback position via free agency or trades. Let’s get right to it.
Mark Sanchez
I had intended to write this column after the Eagles dismantled the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. But, two kids and a full time job later, here I am. It was a much more relevant topic then than it is now. But it still needs to be addressed.
…….Actually, no it does not. Mark Sanchez is a free agent and it’s safe to say based on his uneven performance this year that teams won’t be knocking down his door. He is a capable backup that won’t kill you for a week or two. But anything beyond that and you are in trouble. The Eagles could do worse for a backup, since he has a year in the system and by all accounts, seems to be a good locker room presence.
But Sanchez never was the long term answer. And in hindsight, it seems silly that we even had this discussion. But to the people that advocated for Sanchez as the solution for all that ails the Eagles quarterback issues, all I have to say is this.
NFL Free Agents
The list of potential free agent QBs for 2015 is less attractive than Betty White in a speedo.
The “highlights” of this list include Jake Locker, Michael Vick, Mark Sanchez, Brian Hoyer, Matt Flynn, Ryan Mallett, Richard Simmons, Colt McCoy, Austin Davis, and Barry Manilow.
Ok, I might have taken liberty with some of those names. But none of these players have the look of an NFL franchise caliber QB. They vacillate between capable backup (Sanchez, Mallett, Flynn, McCoy, Vick) to backend starter (Hoyer, Locker, Davis). Of the group, I would look at Jake Locker and Austin Davis the most as low risk options to compete for the backup spot.
Austin Davis
You probably remember Davis, since he torched our beloved Birds for 375 yards and 3 touchdowns back on October 5. Yet, it is unclear whether the Rams will even let Davis hit free agency given his youth and the promise he showed in just his second season. Davis was getting some play as a potential breakout star for 2014 before turnovers and Jeff Fischer’s impatience with young quarterbacks placed him on the bench.
His stat line was similar to the numbers put up by Sanchez and Foles this year: 63.4%, 2001 yards, 7.05 average, 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 85.1.
However, the Football Outsiders DYAR and DVOA metrics look much less favorably on his performance. For those of you unfamiliar with DYAR and DVOA, they are advanced metrics (think Moneyball for football). DYAR “gives the value of a quarterback’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.” DVOA “represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance. For a more detailed explanation, check out this.
Davis had a -2 DYAR and -11.2% DVOA. Again, for the novices, a zero is considered “replacement level” or average. So the negatives are a concern. He ranks below Mike Glennon, Drew Stanton and Charlie Whitehurst in these categories. Even the inconsistent 2014 version of Nick Foles was well ahead of those marks, putting up 268 DYAR and 2.6% DVOA. In other words, his stat line that otherwise looks “good” is actually below average when you take into account the situation and quality of opponents he faced.
If Davis happens to hit free agency, the Eagles should at least consider bringing him in to push Barkley for the backup position. In a way, he reminds me of a more accurate version of Mark Sanchez: he has some athleticism, but he struggles to throw the deep ball consistently. Here are some scouting reports on Davis coming out of college:
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/austin-davis?id=2533349
http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2012-scouting-reports/austin-davis-scouting-reports
Jake Locker
Jake Locker has never put up the numbers you would expect from a franchise quarterback: he has a career completion percentage of 57.5%, and only 27 touchdowns to go along with 22 interceptions. And last year’s DYAR and DVOA rankings of -175 and -32.3%, respectively, make Austin Davis look like Aaron Rodgers. He measures below EJ Manuel, Shaun Hill, and Geno Smith in each of those categories. We should all be thankful Ruben Amaro Jr isn’t running the Eagles or he would have signed Locker to a 6 year $100 million deal.
Given that he is entering his 5th NFL season, it’s fair to wonder if he has hit his ceiling in terms of development. To make matters worse, he has been incapable of staying healthy, having yet to start a full 16 games in his career. He’s maxed out at 11 games in a single season (2012), but has played only 14 games the last two years combined.
Wait, why did I list him again?
He has some intrigue as a low risk, high reward guy. He is mobile, which should marry well with Chip Kelly’s offense. And he was once considered a top prospect having been drafted 8th overall by the Tennessee Titans (albeit at the time it was considered a reach), so the talent might be there. Also working in his favor is the fact that he has had a revolving door of head coaches and offensive coordinators since he came to the Titans. This might have stunted his growth similar to how it affected Alex Smith. Perhaps he could improve in the Eagles system ala Mark Sanchez. But at best we are looking at a low risk high upside signing that, like Davis, would come in to compete for a backup job.
Trades
Remember folks, those were the highlights of the free agent class. So it's safe to say free agency is not the avenue through which the Eagles can solve their quarterback issue.
The NFL is a quarterback starved league. Any team with a semi-capable signal caller, especially one that possesses any semblance of upside, is unlikely to trade that player. There are obviously exceptions to this rule, but looking around the landscape of the NFL leaves a murky picture at best.
The two trade targets that immediately jump to mind are Robert Griffin, III and Colin Kaepernick. Both have struggled as of late (RGIII more so than Kaepernick), and both have unsettled futures with their respective franchises.
Robert Griffin III
It was no secret this year that RGIII and new Redskins head coach Jay Gruden butted heads. It culminated in Gruden openly questioning Griffin’s fundamentals, something you rarely see at any level of sports.
Reports surfaced back in October, that the Redskins were ready to move on from their once promising quarterback.
But it is fair to wonder whether that still holds true. Dan Snyder is a big fan of RGIII, and after he returned at the end of the season, RGIII at least showed some level of competence.
Complicating things further is the question of whether the Redskins would be willing to trade RGIII to a division rival, especially one with an offense that seems catered to accentuate Griffin’s strengths.
The more important question is whether we would even want Griffin. Count me among those that are skeptical. People will fixate on his athleticism, and it undoubtedly matches well with Chip Kelly’s read option attack. However, if you have ever read my work before, you will know that I could care less about a quarterbacks athleticism. Having it is a bonus. But if the quarterback cannot make adjustments at the line or get rid of the ball quickly and accurately from the pocket, it doesn’t matter how fast his 40 time is. And once RGIII lost his athleticism and was forced to throw from the pocket, he became a marginal quarterback at best. Last year he had the third worst DVOA and DYAR rankings in the entire league among qualified quarterbacks.
Add to that the rumors that RGIII was not putting in the necessary work to become a franchise quarterback, and I don’t see this move making much sense unless the Eagles get him at a steep discount.
Colin Kaepernick
I did not think this was a possibility until Jim Harbaugh left. Apparently this upset Kaepernick to the point of becoming emotional.
Who knows, perhaps the new coach hired by the 49ers will want to move on from Kaepernick and look to make a trade. But what kind of return will they seek? That’s where it gets complicated. It’s not often that a team is willing to part with a 27 year old quarterback that has started a Super Bowl. At a minimum, the 49ers would want the Eagles first round pick. However, if Kaepernick he makes it known he wants out, it might take less – a 2nd rounder? The situation is unclear, but definately worth keeping an eye on.
And while there are obvious concerns about his regression this year from the pocket, he has had much more success in this league than RGIII. Part of that was undoubtedly a byproduct of being on a better team. But It's not easy to win in this league, and because he's been able to help lead a team to the Super Bowl, the Eagles should at least reach out to the 49ers to gage their interest.
So that’s it. There is nothing in free agency that represents an upgrade over our current options. The best we can hope for is a low risk signing similar to what we got last year with Sanchez. The trade market is equally dim, with no viable options. Part III will see if any quarterbacks on our current roster solve the problem.
