I was in my hotel just outside of Pittsburgh on Saturday night when I heard the news that Dom Brown had been recalled from AAA-Lehigh Valley. I have to admit, I almost felt like leaving Pittsburgh then. I have seen Dom Brown plenty this season at IronPigs games. Based on what I saw, I didn't expect to have to see him as a Phillies outfielder. Not only was he in uniform Sunday, but I had to watch him start and take four at-bats. It was as bad as I expected.
You see, Dom Brown went 0-for-4 in his debut, but at least he didn't drop any fly balls. This is to be expected though, as Dom did not earn a call up in AAA. Over 210 AB's/224 PA's, Dom hit .257. Dom posted a .659 OPS. Dom hit two homers in posting a .352 slugging percentage. He walked just 14 times in posting a .307 on-base percentage. Nothing in his statistics suggested he should come up.
The argument for Dom is that his "upside" is higher than everyone else. People point to his high pedigree as a former prospect. They point to his 2013 season, with it's .818 OPS and 27 homers. They point to his status out of high school as a two-sport star that was on his way to Miami University, before the Phillies picked him. They say that, lacking other options, the Phillies should give him a shot. They say, "what if" he's a .270 hitter that can hit 20-25 homers. They say we should give him a shot, because what better options do we have? Forget his .248 career average, forget his 10 homers in 2014, or his .634 OPS in that season. Forger that he's basically a .250 hitter who might hit ten homers. He deserves a shot, because for six weeks in 2013, he looked like the player who had been so hyped on the way to the majors. Those six weeks should trump his basic career of failure, they say. Why? Because what else is there?
That is a quite fine question, actually. Dom Brown replaced Darin Ruf on the roster, a fellow failing former prospect (though a much lower rated one) who was playing in a bench role. After his arrival, Ryne Sandberg said Dom would get "some" starts in right field. Clearly this means he will take "some" at-bats from other players. Will he take at-bats from Odubel Herrera, the Rule-5 pick the Phillies started on Opening Day in center field, a 23 year old? Will he take at-bats away from 24 year old left-fielder Cody Asche, a player they converted from an infielder this year? Maybe 27 year old outfielder Ben Revere, who plays all three outfield positions, lead the NL in hits last year, is hitting .273 this year, and is a player the Phillies would like to trade? Dom isn't really younger than these guys at this point, nor does he really have much more upside than any of them, despite their clear and obvious flaws too. Since there are only three starting slots on any given night, if Dom is playing, one of them is not. You also can't forget 31 year-old Jeff Francoeur, who is having a better year than any of the players we're discussing here. Dom Brown getting at-bats really doesn't make more sense than any of these players, in fact the stat line might say less.
Let's just be clear here, Dom Brown isn't likely to turn out okay, no matter how many chances the Phillies keep giving him. He's a mediocre hitter at best, a poor outfielder, and has pouted about his "treatment" enough times already for it to grow old. The six weeks in 2013 were nothing more than a fluke, a fluke that has not been repeated at any point, in any level, since. By now we need to accept that Dom, at his best, is a .250 hitter that can hit a few homers. That is the upside now. His 2013 was a fluke.
There is no good reason to have called up Dom Brown. He hadn't earned it, and he takes up space from players more worth a look. If he's here, there's no reason to play him very much, as again, he takes away chances to get a look at younger players with a better shot to improve. If you're trying to build a future winner, yes a .270 hitting, 20-25 homer hitting Dom would help that- but it's extremely unlikely we ever see that player.
Beyond all of that though, when does one run out of chances? This is no longer a prospect. How many times do we give a chance to a player who doesn't take advantage of them? The Phillies absolutely should have non-tendered Dom last winter when they had their shot at that, and they should absolutely have DFA'ed him during his struggles in AAA this year. Some say that is cutting him for the sake of cutting him, which they say has no value, however I say as long as he's in the organization, they will keep giving him a shot, over and over again. I think we've seen enough. This player isn't going to change. Old dogs don't learn new tricks.
