Let me make a somewhat bold prediction- I don't believe that Cole Hamels will make his start for the Phillies on Saturday. Yeah, I know, not so bold, there clearly are offers out there for him now, but if I'm wrong on this, I'm not sure he'll get dealt before the deadline this year. The Dodgers are at maximum need at the moment and the Cubs and possibly Red Sox are already making offers. If this thing drags on to Sunday without him moving, I'd have to think the Phillies don't like the kinds of offers their getting, in which case you hold onto Hamels.
With that said, I'm predicting he's moved before game time on Saturday. At this point, I think there are enough teams in on him to make it worth it. The Cubs, Dodgers, and Red Sox are all in for sure. The Rangers can be seriously in, if they want. With what the Cubs reportedly dangled, one would have to think the Yankees, Royals, and others would at least pick up the phone and see if they have a shot. I just think eventually the right offer will be present. Here's where I see each team's chances.
- Cubs- I'm not a fan of Baez or Castro as the centerpiece of a deal. I feel both are very risky returns for the biggest trade chip you have. In Baez, I see the talent, but I'm very worried by the injuries, the strikeout rate, and the fact that he hasn't broken out yet the way some of the other prospects in their system did. In Castro, I see a 25 year old with almost a thousand hits already, but one that the Cubs seem to really want to move. In both players, I see shortstops that need to be moved. The Cubs can put together enough quantity probably to make a competitive package, but I think that as is, the Phillies can and should do better. So how can the Cubs do it? Well, the obvious would be to put Bryant, Schwarber, or Soler into the deal, which I doubt they have much interest in doing. One idea would be to take on not just Hamels and his money, but also Papelbon and his in a deal. While the Phillies don't need money all that bad, freeing up that much of it is game changing. A second way to get this deal done is to bring in a third team- like say the Mets- who desperately could use a bat from the Cubs, and could throw an arm into the deal as a co-feature with Baez or Castro, and sweeten the deal. A third and final way to get this done is to put both Baez and Castro into the deal, and eat all of the money, though I'm honestly not that enthusiastic about that. I'm not really in favor of dealing with the Cubs, nor do I think they should honestly be that into us. The only caveat to this is if Gleyber Torres or Billy McKinney were in the package with Baez or Castro, at least improving the starting point. They are a perfect fit to not trade their major prospects right now, and to do a rental though, so I don't think this makes sense.
- Dodgers- We have no idea really if Yasiel Puig is available for Cole Hamels. This started out as a suggestion of a writer, and just snowballed into a rumor. Let's assume he's available for a second- he makes this very easy. If Puig is available, the Phillies would have the kind of talent they want, and in a little more "sure thing" form than most. A Puig combination with one of their top prospect arms (De Leon and Holmes) would get it done, regardless of who a potential third player would be, but there are other players- like say, Zach Lee- who I really like, and are having good years, and would have a lot of appeal to the Phillies. The Phillies don't come into a Dodgers deal blind though, having dealt Roberto Hernandez and Jimmy Rollins for good returns from the Dodgers, the two teams have worked out pretty good, fair deals before. The Dodgers are pitching rich, and frankly a serious arm should be a part of any deal with them. Even if you take out Puig, a deal can be done. Holmes and De Leon could both be a fine headliner to a deal. Players like Lee, Julian Leon, Austin Barnes, Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Darnell Sweeney, Hector Olivera, and Scott Schebler are all guys the Phillies would love to have, amongst many others. The Dodgers have the big advantage of deep pockets to go with the deep system, and could also do something like take on Papelbon's deal as well to get it done. I just think the Dodgers talent is a better fit for the Phillies than the Cubs, and they have more willingness to throw in the impact talent (like Puig) to get it done. The only reason I don't say the Phillies would take Puig in a straight-up deal is that LA is apparently down on Puig- which you would think drives down his value.
- Red Sox- This has been written about exhaustively at this point, so let's make one thing clear: Boston has plenty of talent to get a deal done, if they so choose to, and they have the money to financially eat the whole deal, if they so choose to. I see no reason to believe that the Red Sox will now part with Betts, Swihart, Moncada, or Castillo, any more than they would have before the season, but if they would now, a deal will get done. Let's assume they won't though. Rafael Devers, Manuel Margot, Brian Johnson, Henry Owens, and Eduardo Rodriguez (who's start was moved back to Sunday) all could be fine pieces in a trade. In fact, Boston could put two of them in here and possibly have the best package of all. Players like Sean Coyle, Deven Marrero, and Matt Barnes are all possibilities too in a package. The Red Sox have enough pieces to make a trade happen, and the money to do it, again, so this is a matter of them deciding they want to. A package of Devers/Margot, Johnson/Owens/Rodriguez, Coyle/Marrero/Barnes, and an A baller with upside definitely gets the job done, and doesn't break the deep pocketed Red Sox back. The balls in their court at this point.
- Rangers- If I could pick the team I wanted to deal with, the Rangers would top that list. Why you ask? Well, I love their top end of the system, even if you say Joey Gallo is off limits to the Phillies in this trade. I'm a big fan of Nomar Mazara and Jake Thompson, both top 50 prospects in Baseball America's mid-season top 50. The thing about Texas is, I like the next group too, all of which have been top 100 guys. Chi-Chi Gonzalez, Nick Williams, and Jorge Alfaro are all guys I really like, and if you could piece two or three of these five guys together, Texas would pretty much have the kind of package you'd want for Hamels. Texas has good depth below this, about the only negative thing I can say here is that there aren't the "sure things" that Boston and Los Angeles can offer you, but I like the ceilings more. I'd have to think their chances are remote, but if Texas wants to make a deal happen, they can put together a great package.
- I'd have to think one more team gets into this. Kansas City absolutely could go from not in to all-in, and put together a great package. The Yankees would have to decide whether Severino or Judge would be in a package, but they have the finances to make this happen. Pittsburgh and St. Louis have to be wondering if they can stop the Cubs from making this move, and both probably have the prospects to be serious in this, if not the money (Pittsburgh) or willingness (St. Louis) to go there. Beyond that, I'd say keep an eye still on Toronto, who could put Norris out there to start talks, and would be taken seriously, thought I doubt Hamels would approve a deal to Canada's tougher tax code. Beyond that, you'd have to find a creative way to put San Francisco in, or you'd have to think Houston is willing to dangle an Appel and/or Santana type of starting block to get another arm.
