 |
| He needs to go. Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
Now that i've aired out my feelings about the failed deadline for the Phillies, now it's time to look forward. I remain steadfast that a rebuild is needed, but the Phillies are not going to rebuild. It isn't the cards, regardless of what we all want to think about it. Ruben thinks they can contend in 2015, and they will attempt to do so. So the next two months are all about 2015, all the time.
The Phillies have a lot of 2015 commitments right now. Right now, the team has the following under control:
- Contracts- Cole Hamels ($22.5 million), Cliff Lee ($25 million), Jonathan Papelbon ($13 million), Ryan Howard ($25 million), Chase Utley ($15 million), Jimmy Rollins ($11 million), Carlos Ruiz ($8.5 million), and Marlon Byrd ($8 million). TOTAL- $128 Million.
- Options- A.J. Burnett ($15 million mutual, $7.5 million player, $1 million buyout). TOTAL- $1 Million
- Arbitration- Ben Revere (current- $1.95 million, project at least $2.5 million), Dom Brown (1st time, project at least $2 million), Antonio Bastardo (current- $2 million, project at least $2.5 million), John Mayberry Jr. (current- $1.587 million, project at least $2 million)
- Pre-Arb- Cody Asche, Darin Ruf, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Ken Giles, Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus, Mario Hollands, Phillippe Aumont, Cameron Rupp, Ethan Martin, David Buchanan
The Phillies are $129 million in for next year for certain, filling out two starting pitching slots, five line-up spots, and a closer. They have seventeen spots to go, including two outfield, third base, three starting pitchers, the whole bench, and six relief spots. Let's take a few liberties here to start with:
- Third base will either be Asche or Maikel Franco, at a club-controlled $500k.
- Bastardo will take a relief spot at our minimum projected $2.5 million, while Giles, Diekman, De Fratus, and we'll say Hollands, all take bullpen slots as well, at a club controlled $500k each.
- Grady Sizemore is re-signed to take one starting outfield slot or a fourth outfielder slot at $1.5 million.
- David Buchanan, Jason Marquis, or Adam Morgan fill out a fifth starter slot at a league minimum $500k.
- Cameron Rupp takes a bench slot behind the plate at $500k. Either Galvis or Hernandez (at least one), makes the team and takes a slot at $500k as well.
That's $8 million in additional commitments, taking the Phillies to $137 million. That leaves them with one outfield, two starting pitchers, a reliever, and three bench slots to fill. If we assume the Phillies are capped in the same $180 million range, they have $43 million to spend on these slots. If A.J. Burnett decided to exercise his option, they're down to $36.5 million to spend at that point (Since we're figuring in his buy out already, his $7.5 million option is only $6.5 million more). If the Phillies want an impact bat in the outfield, you can slot a minimum out of $15 million right away to get that. The Phillies will need a starting pitching impact as well though, because you have no idea what to expect from Cliff Lee off of his first injuries really ever, and even if Burnett's back, he's more of a four than a three. Slot at least $15 million there too. That would leave you with $6.5 million to spend. Remember, that's low end on both of those signings, and if Burnett doesn't exercise his option, you might as well take off another $2.5 million to get a comparable fourth arm. The Phillies really have about $4 million to spend on the reliever and bench spots. Go ahead and say they keep Revere or Brown as a fourth outfielder option, and give spots to the other Hernandez/Galvis player, and one to Darin Ruf. Perhaps they're smarter than that and don't keep Brown or Revere, and then the Asche/Franco runner-up sticks around. Either way, you're looking at between $500k and $2.5 million to spend on another reliever, if you don't go in-house. Either way, you're at the $180 million mark pretty much.
That's not a deep team by any means, as designed, but it's where they are. You have $129 million already out the door before you even start looking around. The Phillies might be smart to not offer anyone arbitration, and fill as many spots as possible with club-controlled young guys, but remember, so far that hasn't panned out where they have done it in recent years.
I don't see a contender no matter how I look at it. The Phillies probably need to release Howard, which is not going to help the contract situation at all, but at least might get them some space for productivity. Even then though, it's just one more spot to fill with the same money. If they decide to blow right through the $180 million mark after their new television deal's ink has now dried, maybe they can do this. Even then, they'd need to go big-time impact in both the outfield and the starting pitching staff to compete. Call me a skeptic.
