Vincent Lecavalier was the premiere free agent during the 2013 offseason, and the Flyers went out and signed him. At the time the Flyers needed defense and goaltending, but after buying out Daniel Briere they also needed a veteran center; enter Vincent Lecavalier. Lecavalier signed with the Flyers on July 2, 2013 to a five-year deal. Unfortunately, July 2 just might be the high point of Lecavalier’s tenure in Philadelphia.
Since joining the team in the 2013 offseason, Lecavalier has struggled mightily. The surface numbers of 20 goals might not stand out to you as a struggling player, but as you look deeper into the numbers it only gets worse and worse. Were there underlying signs that the Flyers front office missed when signing Lecavalier? Perhaps, let's take a quick look.
I decided to look at a few different sets of statistics for Lecavalier’s last five years in Tampa Bay. First off, I looked at his 5v5 point per game scoring rate.
Looking at just the basic numbers, the signing looked like a fantastic one as Lecavalier had increased his even strength scoring rate in each of the past three seasons. Unfortunately, that number took quite a big dip when he came to Philadelphia as he dropped from scoring 0.54 points per game at 5v5 play for the Lightning in the 2012-2013 season to just 0.30 points per game for the Flyers during the 2013-2014 season.
Another common statistic many use is plus-minus. I decided to look at how the team was doing scoring goals compared to giving up goals with Lecavalier on the ice. This is where we start to see problems.
After breaking even on 5v5 plus-minus in 2008 through 2010, Lecavalier took a step up to plus-seven in the 2010-2011 season, but it has been all downhill from there. Lecavalier’s 5v5 plus-minus for the Flyers last season was minus-ten, falling steadily from minus-three in the previous season and a plus-five in the season before that. Despite putting up more points in his last three seasons in Tampa Bay, his plus-minus was taking quite a hit, which can be correlated to his 5v5 corsi for percentage.
A player’s corsi for percentage put simply is what percentage of the shots his team was getting while he was on the ice. An average player has around a 50 percent corsi for, while better players go higher and worse players go lower.
That chart would look pretty fun if it were a roller coaster, but it isn’t; it’s the 5v5 corsi for percentage for Lecavalier from 2008 through 2014. After peaking at just above 50 percent in the 2010-2011 season it has been all downhill from there for Lecavalier, dropping to 48 percent in 2011-2012, 46 percent in 2012-2013 when the Flyers decided to sign him, and bottoming out last season for the Flyers at a lowly 45.31 percent.
A player’s corsi for clearly doesn’t only impact himself, but it has a direct effect on his line mates as well. Lecavalier seemed to be slowing down many of his teammates last year, and the numbers just go to prove that. I broke Lecavalier’s line mates into three groups: “Regular Linemates” which consisted of players he spent at least 150 minutes of 5v5 ice time with, “Others” which he spent anywhere from 34 to 104 minutes of ice time with, and “4th Liners” who were 4th line regulars during the 2013-2014 season.
*For all of these charts, the Corsi For Percentage with Lecavalier is in black, while the Corsi For Percentage without Lecavalier is in orange.
As you can see, the performances of Vinny’s two primary line mates, Brayden Schenn (415 minutes) and Wayne Simmonds (391 minutes), were hindered by Lecavalier’s presence. Schenn and Simmonds were around 50 percent corsi players without Lecavalier while they were below 45 percent with him. You can see the same effect for Sean Couturier and Matt Read who he spent 169 and 151 minutes with respectively.
Here I listed everyone else who Lecavalier played with for 30 minutes or more who were not 4th line regulars. The numbers once again are pretty negative for Vinny who drags down even the best of players. Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek both played nearly 10 corsi for percentage points higher without Lecavalier than With him. Enough negativity for now though, lets get to some positive aspects for a bit.
Despite everything up to this point that may have pointed that I think Lecavalier is a lost cause, I think he can be saved. Last year Lecavalier was dropped to the 4th line and it seemed to turn his game around for a short period. When season-long 4th liner Adam Hall was on the ice with Lecavalier his corsi for percentage jumped up to nearly 53 percent, 10 points higher than without Lecavalier. Vinny’s negative impact wasn’t nearly as strong on Zac Rinaldo as it was on other players, leading me to believe that there is room to work there as well. Lecavalier also had a positive impact on Tye McGinn as shown on the chart. I left Jay Rosehill (60% with, 41.6% without) and Chris Vandevelde (80% with, 44.5% without) off the chart due to small sample sizes, but those would be some more numbers for the Vinny to 4th line movement as well.
There is no doubt that Lecavalier has an overall negative impact on his line mates, but could that have been predicted? In order to look into that, I looked at the corsi for percentage of the seven Lightning forwards that Lecavalier played at least 50 minutes with in the 2012-2013 season.
*With Lecavalier in Black, Without Lecavalier in Blue
Lecavalier seems to have had this impact for a while now, so we shouldn’t be too surprised by it. However, his corsi for with players like these were likely against tougher competition on Tampa Bay’s top line opposed to the competition he would face if he was on the Flyers 4th line.
Once again here is a chart showing the impact Lecavalier has on his line mates. The impact percentage is calculated by taking the corsi for percentage a player has without Lecavalier on the ice and subtracting the corsi for percentage with Lecavalier on the ice from that. For example, Adam Hall had a 52.80% with Lecavalier on the ice and a 42.40% without him; (52.80% – 42.40% = 10.40%).
There is no point of the coaching staff trying to continue to force Lecavalier into a spot that he does not belong. With the amount of forward depth that the Flyers have they should be willing to move Vincent Lecavalier to the 4th line center role and let the young forwards like Schenn and Simmonds thrive on the 2nd line without him while he regains some confidence on the 4th line.
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Ryan Gilbert is a contributing writer for Flyerdelphia and can be followed on Twitter @RiskyBryzness.
