Posted by Mike Frohwirth
Chase Utley makes his long-awaited return to the Phillies lineup tonight, as the Phillies face soft-tossing right-hander Bronson Arroyo and the Cincinnati Reds. Wilson Valdez, and his .551 OPS (.252 wOBA), has been relegated to the bench. Pete Orr, and his .578 OPS (.258 wOBA), has been exiled to the scenic Lehigh Valley. Utley, with his 2010 OPS of .832 (.372 wOBA), represents a substantial upgrade, both offensively and defensively.
Before we examine tonight's lineups, a few reminders:
- The batters at the top of the lineup will receive the most plate appearances, therefore it is advantageous to position the best batters at the top of the lineup.
- The top three batters should be positioned in the #1, #2, and #4 spots. The #1 batter should (ideally) have a high OBP, and the #4 batter should (ideally) have a high SLG.
- The #5 batter should be better than the #3 batter, and the #6 through #9 batters should be arranged by decreasing order of ability. (Note: It is actually advantageous for the #9 batter to be better than the #8 hitter, but we will disregard that, as Phillies' Manager Charlie Manuel will probably figure out that reliever J.C. Romero should be LOOGYfied, before he bats the pitcher 8th.)
- The lineup is an infinite loop. The leadoff batter may only lead off an inning once, but he will always bat between the #9 and #2 batters. So, it is advantageous to bunch good hitters together. (This is why batting the pitcher 8th is preferable, and why batting the likes of Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez is a hideously egregious error.)
For more on lineup construction, feel free to read this post from the Luis Castillo Era.
Tonight's lineup (handedness and 2011 wOBA in parentheses):
Rollins (B, .323)
Utley (L, .372)
Polanco (R, .355)
Howard (L, .344)
Ibanez (L, .295)
Ruiz (R, .282)
Brown (L, .406 in AAA (2011)/.259 in MLB (2010))
Mayberry (R, .323)
A few notes:
- Ibanez, like most left-handed batters, fares better against right-handed pitchers.
- Mayberry, like most right-handed batters, fares better against left-handed pitchers.
- Bronson Arroyo, like most right-handed pitchers, fares better against right-handed batters.
- Sadly, Cincinnati relief ace Aroldis Chapman is currently on a AAA rehab stint.
- The Reds' bullpen includes only one left-handed pitcher, Bill Bray, who is typically utilized in a LOOGY role.
The top three wOBAers (Polanco, Utley, and Howard) should be used in the #1, #2, #4 spots. (Unfortunately, Manuel seems committed to Rollins in the leadoff spot.)
For this discussion, we'll move Rollins to the #3 spot, and bat Ibanez 5th. (Rollins is a stronger batter than Ibanez. Theoretically, he should bat 5th, with Ibanez 3rd. But Ibanez is fine against RHP, and Rollins (switch-hitter) will separate the left-handed hitting Utley and the left-handed hitting Howard. This will prevent the Reds from being able to use Bray, their left-handed specialist, against both Utley and Howard (without having to face Rollins, batting right-handed.)
Our first five:
Polanco (R, .355)
Utley (L, .372)
Rollins (B, .323)
Howard (L, .344)
Ibanez (L, .295)
We'll assume that the pitcher (Cole Hamels) will bat 9th, and then arrange the 6-7-8 hitters, by decreasing order of ability.
Ruiz (R, .282)
Brown (L, .406 in AAA (2011)/.259 in MLB (2010))
Mayberry (R, .323)
Remember, Mayberry struggles against right-handers, so we'll move him down. We'll bat Ruiz ahead of Brown, as he is currently a superior option, and also because Ruiz' right-handedness prevents the Reds from being able to use Bray against three consecutive left-handed batters (Howard, Ibanez, Brown).
So, our optimized lineup:
Polanco (R, .355)
Utley (L, .372)
Rollins (B, .323)
Howard (L, .344)
Ibanez (L, .295)
Ruiz (R, .282)
Brown (L, .406 in AAA (2011)/.259 in MLB (2010))
Mayberry (R, .323)
Notice that, if you swap Rollins and Polanco in our optimized lineup, you are left with Manuel's chosen lineup. Not bad, Mr. Manuel, not bad. This ordering is a lot better than the Valdez/Orr batting-second lineups of the distant past.
