By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor
While it may burn to some to discuss potential Jeremy Hellickson trades for a month and never see one actually materialize, the Philadelphia Phillies are not in a bad position at all for not trading their Opening Day starter prior to this afternoon's non-waiver trade deadline.
Various outlets had suggested that the Phillies got interest on the 29-year-old from at least five teams, with many of those same outlets noting that the Phillies were looking for a return of a top five prospect for Hellickson. It's unclear if that asking price was universal or if it only pertained to teams like the Miami Marlins where trading for a prospect outside of the top five would have amounted to losing the trade.
What's clear is that despite a month of July in which he went 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA, Hellickson wasn't traded and appears likely to finish the season with the Phillies. The possibility of an August trade exists in theory, though wouldn't be very logical. The Phillies probably aren't going to lower their asking price for Hellickson and if team's weren't willing to meet their asking price on August 1, they are unlikely to later in the month.
Hellickson is an impending free-agent, but that doesn't mean he'll walk away this off-season without the Phillies being compensated for it. Barring a complete collapse in the second half — and it's hard to put into perspective how bad of a collapse it would have to be — the Phillies are likely going to extend Hellickson a qualifying offer of north of $16.7 million. If he accepts the deal, he will have agreed to a $16.7 million deal for one more season of playing with the Phillies. Should he and his agent Scott Boras decline the offer and sign elsewhere, the Phillies will gain a draft pick in the compensatory round of the 2017 MLB Draft.
The safe bet seems to be that the Phillies will offer Hellickson the qualifying offer and then he will decline it and agree to a deal with another team in free-agency. He's certainly not going to get $16.7 million annually, but he will probably get three years of security in free-agency. That said, a weak free-agent pitching market this off-season doesn't necessarily mean that someone will give Hellickson $10-$12 million per season, so it is possible that he bets on himself and accepts the Phillies' qualifying offer. The Phillies certainly wouldn't have any issues overpaying Hellickson for a season, though with an increased salary and little chance that he's this hot around next year's trade deadline, they still may struggle to find a suitor for him in the trade market next summer.
In the short term, Hellickson will continue to eat innings and probably pitch pretty effectively for the Phillies. While Hellickson remaining with the team will block top pitching prospect Jake Thompson, who has been hot with the Triple A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, from making his Major League debut, it may help the Phillies in other ways. The Phillies are likely to limit the innings of Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff late in the season, which will mean they will need some other pitchers to throw innings late in the season. Hellickson remaining with the team goes a long way in figuring out that problem and may make the last few weeks of the season less ugly.
As for what grade general manager Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail get for their handling of Hellickson, it's hard to assess currently. The two did a great job of anticipating how weak the starting pitching market this summer would be, which seemed to give Hellickson an increased value over what he normally would have had. However, the Phillies still didn't seem to be happy with whatever offers they may have received. Looking ahead, this off-season's free-agent starting pitching market looks rather weak as well, which may allow them to ultimately land a high draft pick for the 29-year-old. If that happens, then the two played their Hellickson cards about as well as possible. If he gets injured or struggles mightily the rest of the season, then the duo won't look as good for holding onto their top seriously attainable trade chip in their first non-waiver trade deadline together.