What Would I Do?

The 2014 season is over, and for a third straight October, the Phillies are watching the playoffs. This is unacceptable, and should never happen. It really shouldn't happen to a $180 million team. In effect this means that the Phillies should either figure out a way to contend in 2015, or should not be as expensive. Given that there is literally no sign at all of the Phillies having financial issues (in fact, they don't), they have to try to contend. Let's all accept a couple of rules right out the gate:

We are a big market who has more money than most of the league. In fact, we're the largest "stand alone" market in the league.
Nostalgia is great in Cooperstown, but not on your team today.
The Phillies have no money issues right now.

With those ground-rules in place, what should the Phillies do? They have a lot of old, expensive players, only a few currently excellent assets on the team, and a lack of premium talent in the minors. How do you radically alter a 73-89 team and at least put them back into the discussion at around 85 wins? What do the Phillies start with?

Starting Rotation:

Going into 2015, the Phillies control a few assets that can play a role. First off, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are under contract, and David Buchanan, coming off a surprisingly fine year, is under club control for 2015 and 2016 before arbitration as well. Adam Morgan, a former top prospect who missed all of 2014 after shoulder surgery, is back throwing, and is going to Arizona for the Fall. Jon Pettibone is still recovering from his surgery as well, but is probably not going to be ready for Opening Day. I'm not personally a believer either in Aaron Nola or Jesse Biddle as Opening Day options, in case you were. A.J. Burnett will decide five days after the World Series if he's an option, though I'd say either way, he's no longer a front-end of the rotation arm. Jerome Williams and Kyle Kendrick are free agents. They're saying Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez could be an option here as well.

Line-Up and Bench:
The Phillies, in theory, could have their entire line-up back next year. Everyone is either under club control, arbitration eligible, or under contract. In addition to that, most of the Phillies bench is under control too. In the one sense, this offers security to the team. On the other hand, it offers limited opportunity to change the team. The Phillies will have to be willing to release players and aggressively market players they want to trade, in order to change this squad much.

Bullpen:
This might be the most secure part of the team. Despite his off-field issues with our fans, Jonathan Papelbon is under control for one more year plus an option, and he was really good this year. Ken Giles, Jake Diekman, and Justin De Fratus are all coming off very solid years, and all are under club control. Mario Hollands seemed to tire a bit as the season went, but showed promise and is club controlled. Antonio Bastardo is arbitration eligible, if the Phillies want him. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez had a very good second half of the season in the minors in the bullpen. Cesar Jimenez was actually fairly effective for the Phillies and IronPigs this season. Ethan Martin had a tough season, but is an option. Luis Garcia was much better in AAA, but he's around. Hector Neris, Phillippe Aumont, B.J. Rosenberg, and Sean O'Sullivan round out the roster. Mike Adams is a free agent.

So what would I do?
If I were building this roster, I'd start by committing to a better rotation in 2015. That starts with Cole Hamels staying here. Boston and Chicago are his top two suitors, and I don't like what Boston has, and Chicago probably isn't going to give you the Soler's of the world. With that in mind, i'd say keep him and try to be better. My 2015 rotation would look like:

Cole Hamels
Free Agent/Trade pick-up
Cliff Lee
David Buchanan
A.J. Burnett/Free Agent/Jerome Williams

No, that is not a youth movement, but it's got the potential to be an upgraded group. This gives Nola, Morgan, and Biddle time to get it together in the minors and figure out how to improve to a big league level. My personal preference of that group right now is a healthy Morgan, but we'll see where he's at in April. My preference is two free agents coming in, Burnett retiring, and betting on Buchanan and Lee. I'd love to see the Phillies pick up true-two and a solid fourth guy on the free agency trail, and slot Hamels, Lee, and Buchanan at one, three, and five.

Next up is the line-up, where I begin by moving on. Let's start with Ryan Howard:

Howard hit .242 with 14 home runs, 50 RBIs and a .757 OPS in 69 games through June 19. His OPS ranked 81st out of 170 qualified hitters in baseball. But since then he had hit .205 with nine home runs, 45 RBIs and a .630 OPS in 83 games. His OPS ranked 137th out of 154 qualified hitters in that span.

His 95 RBIs are fourth in the National League. His 23 home runs are tied for 13th. But Howard also had 468 runners on base during his plate appearances this season, which ranked third in baseball. He knocked in 15.4 percent of those runners, according to Baseball Prospectus. That ranked 53rd out of 137 batters with 500 or more plate appearances.

“It’s not necessarily where I wanted it to be, but at the end of the day I’m happy with it,” said Howard, who missed much of the previous two seasons with left leg injuries. “The biggest goal was being able to finish the season. This was my first full season in two years. It’s kind of getting used to the length, the travel, all that kind of stuff again. Still been able to go out there and put up 20-plus homers and 90-plus RBIs after not playing for a couple years and not finishing a whole season, it’s a starting block.”

Now everyone assumes that this means they have to get rid of Howard. I do prefer that, but it's not the only way to change things there. They could certainly platoon him with Ruf, and I'd be fine with that. Indeed, in general the Phillies need more off time for their veterans, and I am not opposed to that in many situations on this team.

The Phillies should make sure that Darin Ruf and Maikel Franco are both on next year's team as well. The best way to insure that is to not just move on from Howard, but also from Dom Brown. Dom is a bust. He had a great six week run in 2013, but has otherwise been a .250 type of hitter. Now that does cut both ways, as he is a bounce back candidate from being a .230-something, but that's all he'll ever really be. He's blocking the pathway of progress.

One bit of that progress, beyond Ruf, is Yasmany Tomas. I agree with Jimmy Rollins, sign him. There are few opportunities to pick up a young slugger like this, and the Phillies should absolutely move on him.

In short, I'd be actively trying to move on from just about any spot, for the right deal. Even players like Chase Utley, would be in play, as well as Byrd and Revere. I'd be less married to an "every day" line-up and positions, and more deep, and able to mix and match. Franco, Ruf, and Tomas would all become regular pieces of my team. Cody Asche wouldn't have an every day spot, but he'd probably end up with as many plate appearances. With all of that said, my 2015 line-up would look like:

Utley- 2B/1B
Revere- CF
Tomas- LF
Ruf- 1B/RF
Byrd-RF
Rollins-SS
Franco-3B/1B
Ruiz-C

Which would leave my bench as:

Nieves- I bring back my back-up catcher, particularly because I don't like the options.
Asche- He'll play some third, play some second, play some outfield, and provide a lefty bat.
A fourth outfielder type. Maybe this is Sizemore. Maybe it's a free agent like Ichiro. Either way.
Cesar Hernandez
Freddy Galvis

I could be persuaded out of the last two for the right free agent pick-ups, but for the most part, flexibility and the ability to give off days is key, as well as having some offense. The one thing I don't like about my bench is the lack of pinch-hitting power. I'm obviously open to finding some help there. I'm also open to trading Asche, Hernandez, or Galvis in lieu of minor league prospects for a rotation or line-up upgrade.

And all of this finally leads to the bullpen. What would I do? I'd probably start by keeping Papelbon, Giles, Diekman, and De Fratus out there. Hollands and Gonzalez would have the inside track on spots with me too. I would trade Bastardo. I'd bring back Adams on a minor league deal to compete with Jimenez, Martin, Neris, and Garcia for a spot. Aumont and Rosenberg would be out-righted.

In basic conclusion:

I'm totally fine with moving on from the heroes of 2008. I'm also for moving on from David Montgomery as CEO, in favor of John Middleton's less nostalgic view of the team, no matter how hard the Phillies deny it. I'm fine with Howard being traded or released, but not so much with Hamels right now.

There are lots of different ways to approach the off-season, but with this one it should be "change." This team simply has to be better in all areas to contend in 2015. Given the state of the minors, contention should be the only standard given.