Whether you believed it after the Flyers heartbreaking loss in Boston – a distant memory at this point – or after a 5-2 romping by the Devils the day after or even Tuesday night's dismantling by the Canucks, the Flyers season is officially dead.
Sure, mathematically they aren't eliminated from playoff contention yet. But in those final seconds in Boston, which saw the playoff picture shift five points alone, the Flyers playoff push was over. The Flyers have one win since – Saturday's 7-2 shellacking of the Detroit Red Wings.
But with every loss comes new life for the Flyers and an opportunity to compete. For weeks, the big picture has shifted and straddled the line between contender for the playoffs and draft lottery. Make no mistake about it now, the Flyers chances in the NHL Draft lottery are growing with every loss.
Following Tuesday's loss in Vancouver, the Flyers sit on 73 points with 10 games remaining. That is good – or not so good – for 23rd overall in the league, or eighth from the bottom. All seven teams below the Flyers have games at hand.
The Devils seem like a shoe-in to pass the Flyers in the standings. They trail by just two points with two games at hand. Also posing a threat are the Columbus Blue Jackets. They have 64 points – nine fewer than the Flyers – but three games at hand.
You could also call the Carolina Hurricanes a dark horse in the race to pass the Flyers. They trail by 12 points, but have three games at hand and play the Flyers twice in April – which could easily account for 10 of the 12 points.
If all three teams pass the Flyers, they would have the fifth-highest odds to secure the top pick in the Draft – not great, but certainly not out of the question.
To put that in perspective, the Flyers currently have a six percent chance of getting the top pick as the eighth-worst team in the league. In seventh, is goes up to 6.5 percent. In sixth, the percentage is 7.5. If they move all the way to fifth, it is an 8.5 percent chance.
By those parameters, the Flyers would pick first or anywhere between fourth and eighth overall, pending the results for the remainder of the season and the lottery.
What may also help the Flyers is a very unfavorable schedule – at least if you're looking for wins – moving forward. The Flyers close out March with road games in Calgary and Edmonton before facing Chicago and San Jose at home. While three of those teams are playoff teams, the Flyers recent performances say they have all but checked out on this season.
It's tough to blame them. They were right in the thick of the playoff race two weeks ago. Now they have almost made a crash landing at the bottom of the standings.
In April, the Flyers play four home games – which sounds favorable. Then you look at the opponents: Pittsburgh, the New York Islanders, Carolina and Ottawa. The Flyers also play Pittsburgh and Carolina on the road in April.
Carolina has been a thorn in the Flyers side all season. The Flyers may also own the Penguins in recent matchups, but without much to play for – even pride is a stretch at this point – it's tough to see this team come out with the usual energy that goes into these games.
Realistically, there may be two or three wins at most left for the Flyers. Not like that's a bad thing. Every loss has the Flyers closer to a brighter future – a slightly better chance at Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel or another player waiting in the wings.
Through all of the lowest lows, that silver lining shines another bright light on the Flyers future, still just a coming attraction to an arena near you.
Kevin Durso is managing editor for Flyerdelphia. Follow him on Twitter @Kevin_Durso.
