With return nearing, who does Jake Voracek replace in lineup?

Photo: Kate Frese/Flyerdelphia

Jake Voracek is almost back.

It seems like a certainty that the Czech winger will return for the Flyers critical Saturday matchup with their bitter rivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins.

With Voracek’s reappearance, this leaves head coach Dave Hakstol with a very interesting choice. Who will he take out to fit in his star wing next to Claude Giroux or Sean Couturier?

An option could be someone from the team’s fourth line playing third-line minutes: Chris VandeVelde, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Ryan White.

While Bellemare and White are safe as can be, VandeVelde had a wretched game against the Blackhawks. On top of that, he may face disciplinary action for his unnecessary head shot on Chicago captain Jonathan Toews. That would make this a whole lot easier.

However, the NHL isn’t exactly consistent with suspending players for head shots – Zac Rinaldo or Radko Gudas anyone?

So if VandeVelde doesn’t get suspended and Hakstol chooses to keep the North Dakota product in the lineup, who are the most likely suspects to come out for Voracek?

It boils down to three guys: the oft-scratched but now suddenly productive Sam Gagner, the rejuvenated center turned winger Scott Laughton or Nick Cousins, who can be sent down to the AHL without hassle.

All three forwards have come on strong since Voracek’s injury and have a number of reasons to stay in the lineup. While general manager Ron Hextall calls this a "good problem" to have, it’s still an issue that could completely subvert the team’s current run.

Gagner is not a strong defensive player. In the neutral zone, his coverage is lacking. In his own end, he tends to lose his man and it leads to scoring chances. He also plays on the second line with Couturier and Michael Raffl, a spot Voracek could easily be slotted into and markedly improve in both offense and defense. It’s a smooth swap and doesn’t alter any other line.

That said, Gagner is producing more than either Cousins or Laughton. Much of that comes from the idea that he’s logging more minutes than either bottom six player and therefore his three goals and two assists in eight games are due to more opportunities with higher quality linemates.

Yet, because Gagner is playing with the likes of Couturier and Raffl, he’s starting more shifts in the defensive zone. While this number is trending downward, Gagner starts 52 percent of his even strength shifts in his own end. Therefore, Gagner is producing more even when he is typically needing to go the full length of the ice to do so.

Laughton isn’t producing nearly as much as Gagner or Cousins. Since Voracek went down, the Oakville, Ontario native produced one point, which was the breakaway goal against the Arizona Coyotes on Feb. 27, the Flyers first game without Voracek. He’s struggled to find his place in the lineup.

Hakstol shifted Laughton to wing after Cousins showcased more comfort at the center ice position. But with that, Hakstol has reduced Laughton’s ice time for some time now. Effectively, making him and Cousins fourth line players and the only ones who routinely play less than ten minutes or just receive the least amount of ice time overall.

Laughton is more flexible than either Gagner or Cousins and has played well at wing but can easily move back to center. And if Hakstol does move Laughton back to the middle, he could see someone like Raffl or Gagner move down to his wing which will help him produce more consistently. Before the Flyers were bitten by the injury bug, Laughton appeared comfortable with Raffl and Read on his sides. A confident Laughton with more responsible wings could complete a third scoring line that the Flyers will need down the stretch.

Cousins is the most sheltered player among the three. He starts 59 percent of his shifts in the opposing end. While that is working right now as the playoff hunt progresses any player who is protected like that will be exposed one way or another.

Another important part of this decision includes where Hextall can put the benched player. Cousins is eligible to return to the AHL and play in that league’s playoffs if the Phantoms reach the postseason, a fate growing less and less likely. So Cousins can be slotted back into Lehigh Valley and continue to get top minutes whereas someone like Gagner or Laughton will just sit in the press box.

Cousins has played well at center, allowing Hakstol to slide Laughton to wing. This means Cousins’ presence is actually benefitting his teammates more than Laughton's. Therefore, Cousins’ departure has a potential ripple effect on multiple lines. Take him out and Laughton or Raffl need to replace him which means another player will have to slide down from the top six. Suddenly, multiple lines are impacted and chemistry could be hindered just by removing Cousins. And with two goals and an assist, he's added more finish to the bottom six than Laughton has recently.

This is, indeed, a tough choice.

Ultimately, Hakstol can’t take out Gagner. He’s just played too well and he needs to keep as much offense as possible.

So the toss up comes down to Cousins or Laughton. Hakstol might want to stick with the more experienced Laughton and give him another go at center or simply have a swing player like Gagner or Raffl drop down and keep the 21-year-old at left wing.

Or he could scratch Laughton and keep Cousins in the middle. Then simply drop a Gagner or Raffl to the wing with Cousins and Matt Read. Both lines with either Laughton or Cousins looks better than it does with both of them on it.

If you go by production, there’s no doubt Hakstol should keep Cousins and scratch Laughton. However, if the head coach wants to keep an optimal number of players in game ready condition, he’ll have to go with Laughton and allow Hextall to send Cousins back to Lehigh Valley.

This is a nice albeit difficult decision for the Flyers coaches and managers to make. All three players deserve a chance to play and help the Flyers continue their playoff push.

Of course, Hakstol may not have to choose. But if the NHL doesn't discipline VandeVelde then he'll need to be ready to make a decision and put the guessing and speculating to bed.

Dan Heaning is a contributing writer for Flyerdelphia. Follow him on Twitter @Dan_Heaning.